Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Macro Analyst Christian Drake.
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Late-cycle wage inflation continues to manifest, albeit ploddingly. Meanwhile, Payroll Growth is slowing and average weekly hours are flat-to-down. In other words, aggregate hours worked is slowing faster than hourly earnings are rising → meaning aggregate private sector income growth is decelerating. This is perhaps more easily visualized in average weekly earnings growth (see Chart of the Day below) which continue to decelerate (if you are making more per hour but working less hours such that averagely weekly income is down, it is not a boon to your personal PnL or collective domestic consumption capacity). |
