Our Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver is hosting a call at 2:00pm ET for a key update to our Tesla short thesis. If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing this call or related research please email email@example.com.
Since our launch on Tesla in June 2017, we have waited for the run-off of the U.S. EV tax credit, brand challenges from truncated development processes, and competitive entry by scale competitors. 2020 is a critical year – we are a mere 7 weeks from the elimination of Tesla’s U.S. EV tax credit, the brand has weakened in our surveys, and we’ve already seen an impact of competing vehicles on S & X demand.
Tesla might seem a difficult short, but it is down over last two and a half years, lagging the market by over 40%.
We look to short squeezes, and we just had one. With so many incremental bearish developments since our initial view, including recent lawsuits that Tesla cannot easily afford, we are surprised we are getting another go. We look at what our new data, recent disclosures, and CFO ‘contributions’ are telling us in combination with what we are hearing from bulls and bears. How well did Musk’s last short burns work?
We do not think the Tesla short has been this teed up since the 420 tweet - we’ll show why in our call this Thursday.