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Wynn's revenue share in Macau share looks good on a preliminary basis.

Our Macau sources are telling us that Wynn’s market share of gross gaming revenues month-to-date has jumped to 18% due to strong VIP turnover and decent hold.  Obviously, Encore is fueling the increase but, if our sources are correct, Wynn would be adding more share than supply which would be a positive.  One source even suggested that Wynn overtook LVS in market share, although it could be due to just low hold. 

As we wrote about yesterday in “MPEL: TOO BIG OF A MOVE DOWN”, we think Macau is having a very good May, driven by very strong VIP volumes.  Our best guess is that May revenues should increase +60% y-o-y.  Wynn has materially higher market share in VIP and to get to 18% total GGR share, they would need to capture over 20% of VIP revenue – which is a nice jump over April and 1Q2010.  In April, VIP revenues grew 89% y-o-y to almost $1.27BN, and if May comes in at similar or slightly higher levels and if Wynn’s Mass share creeps up a few bps to 10%, that would imply a whopping $274MM of gross table revenue for Wynn.  We’ve also heard that all of the Encore tables are direct play tables which means lower blended commissions and higher margins.

To put things in context:

  • Wynn added 37 VIP tables and 24 Premium Mass tables, representing a 2.3% and a 70bps addition to the market as a whole, respectively. 
  • Wynn’s market share in April:
    • 14% ($239MM) of total table revenues
    • 16% share of VIP revenues
    • 14.4% share of Junket RC
  • Wynn’s market share in 1Q2010:
    • 13.5% ($663MM) of total table revenues
    • 15% share of VIP revenues
    • 16% share of Junket RC