WYNN ENCORE OFF TO A GOOD START

Wynn's revenue share in Macau share looks good on a preliminary basis.

 

 

Our Macau sources are telling us that Wynn’s market share of gross gaming revenues month-to-date has jumped to 18% due to strong VIP turnover and decent hold.  Obviously, Encore is fueling the increase but, if our sources are correct, Wynn would be adding more share than supply which would be a positive.  One source even suggested that Wynn overtook LVS in market share, although it could be due to just low hold. 

 

As we wrote about yesterday in “MPEL: TOO BIG OF A MOVE DOWN”, we think Macau is having a very good May, driven by very strong VIP volumes.  Our best guess is that May revenues should increase +60% y-o-y.  Wynn has materially higher market share in VIP and to get to 18% total GGR share, they would need to capture over 20% of VIP revenue – which is a nice jump over April and 1Q2010.  In April, VIP revenues grew 89% y-o-y to almost $1.27BN, and if May comes in at similar or slightly higher levels and if Wynn’s Mass share creeps up a few bps to 10%, that would imply a whopping $274MM of gross table revenue for Wynn.  We’ve also heard that all of the Encore tables are direct play tables which means lower blended commissions and higher margins.

 

To put things in context:

  • Wynn added 37 VIP tables and 24 Premium Mass tables, representing a 2.3% and a 70bps addition to the market as a whole, respectively. 
  • Wynn’s market share in April:
    • 14% ($239MM) of total table revenues
    • 16% share of VIP revenues
    • 14.4% share of Junket RC
  • Wynn’s market share in 1Q2010:
    • 13.5% ($663MM) of total table revenues
    • 15% share of VIP revenues
    • 16% share of Junket RC

Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more