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If you’re stuck watching CNBC, you’re probably hearing a lot of pundits telling you to expect, “surprise to the upside.”

But if you’re keeping a close eye on global economic data that is released daily, like we are, you might start considering surprises to the downside.

As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip above from The Macro Show, using an Old Wall indicator like the “surprise index” to invest is a ridiculous idea, given where it was the last time it reached its current levels.

“The last time the surprise indicator was here at this level was going into Quad 4 of Q4 of 2018,” McCullough explains.

“So the surprise wasn’t that you were going to be positively surprised, it was that it was going to go down.”

Watch the full clip above for more.

What If the Big Economic Surprise Is To The Downside? - the macro show