National security reporting on unusual developments in Russia's far northwest over the last month - radiation spikes in the Archangel region, seismic shocks from the same area, deaths in a nuclear submarine research vessel near Murmansk - raised inevitable speculation on Moscow's military research and development activities.
- On a personal note, I was traveling through this region literally in the middle of most of these reported events. A Russian nuclear research submarine suffered an internal explosion in early July, resulting in the death of 14, just prior to our arrival in the Murmansk area where the accident occurred; shortly after our departure from Archangel in late July, an apparent nuclear-powered cruise missile under development exploded at a test site near the city, killing seven; and reports of unusual regional seismic activity continued to be registered throughout August.
What's going on? First off, despite the vaunted technological prowess of Russian engineers (deservedly, in many areas), the militarization of that prowess, and nuclear power development, in particular, has been fraught with serious lapses in quality oversight. The Chernobyl tragedy in 1986 was the most famous, largely because it proved impossible to cover up its magnitude; but there were numerous nuclear accidents before and after Chernobyl - in the Urals, and in St. Petersburg/Leningrad, amongst other sites - that Soviet and Russian dis-information effectively masked.
- One of the most devastating accidents that set back the Russian ballistic missile program for years occurred in Kazakhstan in 1960; a blast on the launch pad at Baikonur killed nearly 100, including the commander of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces. Of course, Moscow dissembled, claiming the commander was killed in an "aircraft accident."
Second, on the apparent nuclear cruise missile accident last month, this program is part of a major effort to modernize Russia's strategic nuclear assets. Spurred by Putin, the Russian Defense Ministry sees an opportunity to leap ahead of the U.S. with a new generation of strategic weapons; the cruise missile is but one program in a series of highly publicized initiatives that include hypersonic weapons and long-range torpedoes with strategic nuclear warheads.
- But as happened all too frequently during the Cold War, Russian defense agencies will take significant development risks to achieve strategic goals. The apparent cruise missile accident near Archangel last month - failures either from a fission reactor for missile thrust, or radioisotope decay to power aircraft batteries - demonstrated the down-sides. (The U.S., by the way, fearful of radiation plumes trailing behind aircraft, gave up on using fission for powered flight 40 years ago.)
- One explanation for Moscow's rush to develop and field new strategic weapons could be to use them as bargaining chips in subsequent arms negotiations with the U.S. - talks for example to replace the recently abandoned Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force (INF) agreement, or to update the New Start Agreement that expires in 2021. However, Trump has shown no inclination to even consider beginning talks towards these ends. Count therefore on Russian development continuing unabated.
Finally, Russian pubic relations management of the recent "accident" still reflects Soviet-era paranoia about adverse publicity - particularly anything nuclear-related. One would have thought that Moscow leaders learned the lessons of Chernobyl - where credibility was one of many casualties. Author Adam Higgenbotham recently wrote in his gripping new book, Midnight in Chernobyl, that "academicians, generals, and politicians shouting over one another" paralyzed the external response to the nuclear accident more than three decades ago. In reviewing Russian public relations management over the recent Arctic accidents, one can easily conclude that little has changed.
Bottom Line: If Putin were looking for a public relations coup last year, when he touted Russia's technology advances in a slick press conference showcasing new missile systems, he lost that opportunity in August as nuclear fall-out rained down on the White Sea. It wasn't the first time that Russian nuclear mishaps endangered not just their citizens but the broader eastern European population as well; it won't be the last.
