MAR: Adding Marriott to Investing Ideas (Short Side)

Since I have 25-30 high quality short ideas coming out of my Independent Research team (we have SELL ideas, the Old Wall doesn’t), I'm just getting started here in adding back shorts on Day 3 of the Counter @Hedgeye TREND bounce in US Equity Beta.

Marriott (MAR) is a new name for Todd Jordan, Sean Jenkins, and Felix Wang (our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Research team) on the short side (it should be a new name because you don't short hotel stocks and/or pro-cyclical REVPAR expectations until The Cycle starts to slow!).

Here are 3 bullet points on why:

• RevPAR underperformance a trend, particularly in Limited Service
• 2019 could prove to be a one-off in terms of net unit growth acceleration – a look under the pipeline hood highlights plenty of risk
• 3yr EBITDA CAGR could disappoint and not enough to justify valuation in our opinion

Sell the bounce,

KM