- Trends in Casual Dining:
- According to a report by real estate research firm Reis, U.S. store closings and cutbacks turned the second quarter into the worst one for strip mall owners in 30 years. Strip malls saw average vacancies spike 0.5% to 8.2%, a level not seen since 1995. To date, we have not seen a corresponding reduction in capacity at casual dining restaurants – posted July 21. Helping to alleviate some of these capacity issues is Bennigan’s and Steak & Ale's recent filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, which resulted in the immediate closure of about 200 restaurants. Although all casual dining operators will benefit from this reduced capacity, Brinker’s Chili’s restaurants should be the biggest beneficiary as Bennigan’s was a direct competitor within the bar and grill segment and there is much overlap within their biggest markets – posted July 30.
- Current NPD data suggest that despite the gloomy economic situation, casual dining posted a 1% increase in traffic this quarter. Customer deal traffic was up 6% while non-deal traffic was down slightly and discounting and combo meal visits accounted for half of casual dining growth this quarter supported by promotions from major chains and increased visits with kids. Additionally, the bar and grill category posted the largest gains this quarter – posted July 25.
- Eye on operating leases – CMG, CAKE and PFCB will all face higher operating leases going forward. Their high unit growth strategies have likely pushed their respective management teams to compromise their real estate standards, leading to less favorable terms. For reference, as of their most recent 10-Ks, JBX, DRI and EAT are all subject to operating lease obligations that decline each year – posted July 24.
- Commodity Highlights:
- America’s Chicken Crisis - Two chicken processors reported, and for the first 9 months of fiscal 2008, Tyson’s chicken segment and Pilgrim’s Pride have collectively lost $263 million. This trend can’t continue. Pilgrim’s Pride has cut back on chicken production to increase prices, but reductions have not yet been enough to cover costs. Management said that chicken prices need to increase over 60% just for the company to breakeven, which means chicken prices are inevitably going higher. The company also said that it is taking steps to shorten the duration of its fixed price sales contracts, which will force restaurant operators to float more of their key commodity exposures – posted July 29.
- BWLD has been a clear beneficiary of these lower chicken prices as it has seen a significant decline in chicken wing prices. The marketplace for chicken processors remains volatile, which is not good news for the restaurant industry – posted July 31.
- Both Pilgrim’s Pride and Tyson’s said that consumers have not yet felt the effect of higher grain prices. Those comments combined with Kraft saying that its prices are moving to “unchartered territory” as it, too, is facing higher costs across the board means prices are moving higher in the grocery channel, which can only help restaurant operators – posted July 28 and 29.
- Bloomberg reported that wheat from Australia, forecasted to be the world’s third largest wheat exporter this year (behind the U.S. and Canada) should return to the global market in 2008 after two years of drought, which should help to ease prices – posted July 29.
- Risk remains for corn as corn plant roots are shallow due to flood conditions earlier in the year and are currently more vulnerable to dry weather conditions. This year's crop is pollinating later than normal which puts it in harm’s way for hotter/dryer August conditions. The lateness of the growth could potentially expose the roots to frost. The same situation holds true for soy – posted July 24.
- Earnings Highlights:
- MCD – MCD’s commodity costs are going up at the same time its customers are trading down. These two trends will put further pressure on MCD’s U.S. margins. MCD now expects its FY08 U.S. beef costs to be up 8%-9% (from its prior expectation of flat YOY) and its Europe beef costs up 8%-9% (from prior guidance of up 3%-4%) – posted July 23.
During 2Q, MCD’s U.S. same-store sales increased 3.4%, with 75% of the increase driven by traffic gains. MCD raised prices by 4% in the quarter, which implies that average check declined. The company is raising prices to help stabilize margins while advertising its dollar menu. So the trend is for customers to buy lower priced items and at the same time the company is raising prices – posted July 24.
MCD’s Europe results remained strong in 2Q, but with Starbucks stating that it is seeing a slowdown in consumer spending in the U.K. and Bloomberg reporting that according to the Experian Group Ltd., British consumers made fewer visits to retail outlets in July, the third consecutive fall, as fears of an economic decline and rising energy and household bills deterred shoppers, I question how long MCD can buck the trend – posted August 1.
- PNRA – PNRA is one of the most inflation sensitive business models in restaurants and the company is facing huge commodity headwinds in 2H08 and looking out to 2009, due primarily to higher wheat costs and gas prices. Management has set an internal goal to increase margins by 150-200 bps in 2009 off of 2007 levels despite these rising costs, which makes pricing a necessary component of this growth. PNRA has already raised prices three times since late 2007, is planning for another increase in September, and is testing a new pricing initiative for 2Q09. These price increases are concerning as it relates to their eventual impact on traffic trends (in the first 27 days of 3Q, transactions were running down 2.4% with retail pricing up 6%) – posted July 23.
- PFCB – PFCB’s worse than expected 2Q same-store sales growth can be partly attributed to its focus on the dinner day part, which makes up 67% of revenues at the Bistro (NPD reported that traffic at the supper day part declined the most in the March-May 2008 time period), and its geographic exposure to Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, which accounted for 84% of the Bistro’s total comparable sales decline. Despite weakening top-line results, the company is taking the right steps to manage the parts of the business it can control. Management has said it will not raise prices in the near-term as the risk to traffic is too great and it announced that it is significantly slowing new unit growth in FY09 – posted July 23.
- DPZ – DPZ management said on its 2Q conference call that the same pressures that are impacting its business are hurting its smaller competitors in a bigger way. The NPD Group reported that the categories most dominated by independents experienced the most severe traffic declines in the March-May 2008 timeframe (small chains and independents accounted for 54% of pizza delivery dollar share in 2007, according to DPZ). If more independents are forced to close their doors as a result of their not having the scale necessary to deal with both lower consumer spending and higher commodity costs, the bigger chains, including DPZ, should emerge as winners – posted July 25.
- SBUX – The bad news is that SBUX’s U.S. results remained weak (though not surprising) and the company is now experiencing challenges in its U.K. markets. The good news is that management further reduced both its U.S. and international new unit growth goals (now targeting negative 60 net new stores in FY09 in the U.S.) It was also encouraging to learn that the company is seeing incremental sales at the stores that are in proximity of the 50 stores that have already been closed. Additionally, management indicated that it is seeing an uptick in afternoon traffic as a result of its Vivanno and Sorbetto beverage launches – posted July 31.
- GMCR - GMCR beat on the bottom line, but not the top. SG&A was down 610 bps in the quarter, which offset the 540 bp increase in COGS. The company can only cut SG&A so much to make up for lower gross margins which leads me to believe that by Q4 the signs of stress will be much more evident that they are today – posted July 31.
The thesis hasn't changed. The facts continue to play more and more into my hand and out of Toyota's. In their home market, Japanese economic trends have materially deteriorated in the past month - they look as bad as this TM chart. Domestically, I can argue forever and a day with the media and the sell side about why I don't care if and when TM overtakes GM as America's leading car salesman - why do I "have to own" a new car or either of these stocks anyway? Reality is that TM and GM are overspending to capture US consumer dollars that are being spent less and less on cars. In May GM was at 19% share and TM was at 18%. I don't buy shares of anything that's shrinking.
Europeans have one car basically per family. The Chinese have 1 child per family. The Japanese population of families is shrinking. What does all of this mean? I'll tell you what it doesn't mean - that Americans owning 2.2 vehicles per shrinking household of income isn't going to inspire a new car sales boom anytime soon, no matter how cool Toyota's used to be. Auto sales in the US are approximately 20% of the total retail sales number. The bulls eye on this line item in US Household spending budgets doesn’t say “yeah, but Toyota’s are different.”
If you're still with us on the TM short side, I'd cover some at $84.34, and re-short any strength back up to the $89-91 range. This one is macro, cyclical, and secular, all at once. I like 3's. Especially one's like these that come together like Toyota's short thesis.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
Looking back at 2008 YTD performance, “Global Macro”, as the Street likes to call it, is back! Some investors out there with a rational global fact finding process like Peter Thiel at Clarium capital, are taking advantage of the confusion that seems to be breeding contempt all of a sudden in the momentum oriented levered long community.
Looking back, this is not a new investing “style” of course. On Wall Street, global macro has come and gone out of favor for a generation. One of the pioneers of the global macro trade, John Templeton, passed away this past month, at the age of 95.
The”Fast Money” folks who “buy high, and sell higher” wouldn’t have got along very well with Sir John. One of his classic principles of investing was “to buy when others are despondently selling, and to sell when others are greedily buying.”
John Marks Templeton was born in 1912 in rural Tennessee. He was not only the 1st Yalie from his home town; he was the first to attend college. After finishing 1st in his Yale Class here in our offices’ stomping grounds in New Haven, Templeton went on to become a Rhodes Scholar. Then he obtained his Law degree from Oxford. At the age of 27, he famously bought 100 shares of 100 stocks on the NYSE that were trading under a buck. In 1954 he founded the Templeton Growth Fund, and the rest is history.
Templeton was a man who professed fortitude and “open mindedness”. He didn’t follow the Wall Street crowd. He wasn’t into social climbing or “owning stuff” either. He lived in the Bahamas, drove his own car, and until is later years was often sighted power walking in the ocean against the tide. An Investor’s Business Daily article from 1998 quoted him as saying that he hadn’t watched more than 84 hours of TV in his life.
According to the obituary ‘The Economist” wrote about him on July 19th, 2008, “late in life he favored market neutral hedge funds… he disliked speculation, and any instrument over-geared to make money.”
Templeton liked the idea of hedge funds actually being hedged, and didn’t like leverage – fancy the complexity of that.
God Bless John Templeton’s soul. Wall Street needs to be rebuilt with men and women of principle like him.
- 1) Brands are flocking to China. Unfortunately, many of these brands have no reason to exist in the first place. Brown Shoe (BWS) attacking the Chinese middle-tier footwear opportunity? C’mon…first get the opportunity right in the US. ANY preexisting brand that cannot work in a developed market certainly can’t hack it in China.
- 2) I like the Lotto deal. It is a premium Italian brand that clearly has a place on the feet of Chinese consumers. Without knowing financial terms, I’ll say at least that the strategic move was a sound one for Li Ning.
- 3) There is definitely too much product being shipped in for the Olympics. Period. And it will take a lot to convince me otherwise. Think about it. Are the big brands growing aggressively in China to sell product around a 2-week sporting event? No. They want to be front and center in the eyes of consumers attending the event. Unfortunately, this means building a massive number of stores filled with a whole lot of product. China is a black hole where even the best brands have no clue how much product is in the market. There will be excess inventory in the wake of August.
- 4) On a less doomsday-ish note, any inventory glut will pass. This is not like Atlanta, which took years to recover from the overbuilding around the 1996 Summer Games. I can’t imagine that any PM owning this stock would look at ‘post-Olympic market stress’ and subsequently deem the market broken. But still, an important growth driver will be frozen for a few quarters.
- 5) I think we’re going to see a content transition in China. Yes this is purely my opinion, and I cannot quantify it. But Chinese consumers want US brands such as Nike, and European brands like Adidas to show the world that they’ve arrived – even if it means spending a week’s worth of income on a pair of kicks. But we’re seeing local brands gain some steam, like Warrior and Feiyue – not to mention Li Ning. Not only will these brands accelerate in China, but my bet is that they’ll become more prominent in Western markets.
- 6) If Nike and Adidas are smart, they’re looking at deploying cash to add Chinese brands to their portfolios before they are playing defense and spending more marketing dollars to combat them. If I’m a Chinese brand with any history of relevance whatsoever, I’m scrounging every last Yuan I can find to build my brand image. I’ll get it back many times over when I’m acquired.
This week the Constitutional Court rejected the proposed ban of Erdogan and his political party. Instead, they fined him for “anti-secular” behavior, and the stocks in Istanbul celebrated big time.
On Friday, the Turkish stock market flashed a very positive divergence versus weakness across equities, globally. Turkey’s ISE National 100 Index closed up +1.9% on the day, taking its ramp up 10,000 feet from the thralls of potential political disaster on July 1st where the market was trading at 33,208,-29% lower!
I’ve attached the roller coaster 3 year chart of Turkey as it tells many stories within the “it’s global this time” stock market narrative. On October 15, 2007, at the peak of global equity euphoria the ISE Index closed at a nosebleed height of 58,231.The levered long community saw no tail risk to Ataturk’s long standing secular Republic coming under geo-political fire – why would they? Did they even know what it meant?
Obviously, there were winners and losers coming out of those October 2007 highs. Turkish stocks ended up losing -43% of their value from that peak to the July 2008 trough. Ouch.
I model all country level stock index performance daily (globally) as it often issues me clues as to where tail risk lies. I am in the camp that the global economy is an increasingly interconnected and complex system of factors that need to be respected before they are fully understood.
Understanding Turkey’s domestic arm wrestle between their dominant Islamic faith and secular aspirations to be accepted into the European Union is a fascinating one as it pertains to global geo-political tail risk. It may not be a widely known statistic on Wall Street that there are approximately 1 billion Muslims in a world of 6 billion people. But that certainly doesn’t mean that the reality of these numbers cease to exist.
It is global this time, indeed. America’s grip on “leading” the world is loosening, and we need to pay attention to all of the critical factors underlying where the world is headed next. Turkish politics have the Europeans on their toes – the “Caliph” of Istanbul’s return would wake American’s up in a hurry too.
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