While the housing market has historically been the catalyst for many U.S. recessions, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner explains in the clip above from The Macro Show why it’s unlikely to be the cause of the next economic downturn.

“Housing is normally the cause of recessions – with the recent exception of the dot-com collapse,” Steiner explains.

“Given the depth and magnitude of the last housing recession, I think it’s safe to say that this next cyclical downturn is not going to be housing related.”

Steiner points to both stricter underwriting standards and a relatively affordable national housing market as key reasons why the alarm bells aren’t coming from housing.

Watch the full clip for more.

Why Housing Is (Un)likely To Trigger Next U.S. Recession - the macro show