The UK’s got Talent?

“From now until polling day I will travel the length and breadth of Britain with one clear message: Britain is now on the way to economic recovery. And now is not the time to put it at risk.”

–Gordon Brown


The quote above comes from the Labour Party’s official website, and is noteworthy insomuch as it appears Brown’s only real chance of winning the General Election (which he called today for May 6th) is to convince the people to stay the course his government has set out to revive the ailing economy. In contrast to Brown is the much younger conservative David Cameron who, like US President Obama, is promising a change of guard and policy to fix what he’s named “broken Britain”. 


While Brown and Cameron don’t differ substantially over social issues, on the economic front Cameron has firmly stated that the Tories would cut spending now to address the country’s record budget deficit and federal debt, while Brown and Co. say they won’t reduce spending until at least 2011 to prevent a “double-dip” recession. Brown has anchored his call on the economic improvement he’s seen in recent months, noting the technical end of recession with an upward revision of GDP to 0.4% in Q4 quarter-over-quarter (a “victory” of sorts after the UK lagged peers like Germany and France who saw quarterly GDP expansion in Q2 ’09), unemployment holding steady around 7.8% over the last months (ILO), and CPI that has abated to 3% Y/Y (target = 2%).  


Suffice it to say, Brown’s economic creds don’t stack up to “victory” in our book, but maybe stale is the new normal.


Already political experts forecast the strong possibility of a hung parliament or one that lacks a majority, in which case Brown’s best hope would likely be to form a coalition (last seen in 1964) with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats.  As Brown and Cameron ramp up their respective campaign tours, recent polls suggest inconclusive results:


The Sun/YouGov Poll sees the Tories leading Labour with a 10% spread, (or 41% to 31%), an increase over the last weeks, while the more liberal Guardian/ICM Survey shows the Conservatives with a 4% lead over Labour, or 37% to 33%, with Labour enjoying a forward push over the past week.


In the coming days we’ll have more out on the implications of this election. For now, the UK has not yet voted!


Matthew Hedrick



The UK’s got Talent? - Cameron and Brown


SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more