Our macro team’s GDP forecasts have an excellent track record of being ahead of the Old Wall.
For example, we were well above Wall Street consensus forecasts throughout the nine-quarter U.S. acceleration. Now our forecast for Q4 2018 GDP (set to be reported January 30) is far below consensus (currently 1.80% Q/Q SAAR vs. 2.60% consensus estimate).
Why have we been closer to the pin than our competition?
As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains on The Macro Show, our model is different from the linear extrapolation that leads investors down the wrong path.
“Wall Street consensus does not work,” McCullough says in the clip above.
“Its only value is in fading it when you’re on the other side of it – and that works to both the upside like we were during the peak of the acceleration or on the January 30th number, which will be the first major deceleration.”
Watch the full clip above for a closer look at how Hedgeye digs into calculating GDP.