Editor's Note: Below is a chart (and excerpt) from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
You’d have to work at the ECB or without an internet connection to not know that Europe is slowing at this point. But what about the fine folks at the Fed? When are they going to wake up to the reality that they are tightening into Quad 4?
The aforementioned Yield Spread is indeed what Powell calls a “market signal”, so if you think the recent 10 basis points of Yield Curve compression (since Oil crashed) is going to matter to markets, just wait until the Fed inverts the curve!
US Federal Reserve voters never kill inflation expectations for sport. They believe they save market lives. And while I believe the Powell Put is a lot lower, I also believe that they believe what they believe. So stay tuned for the Fed to flinch in 2019.