NEWSWIRE: 10/30/18
- In Japan, around 44% of single women and 42% of single men ages 18 to 34 say they are virgins. What's holding them back? A confluence of factors, including: a culture of overwork that leaves little time for romance; a patriarchy that disfavors strong, independent women; and a multibillion-dollar sex industry that devalues meaningful companionship. (SBS News)
- NH: When it comes to the consequences of demographic aging, Japan (they say) is the canary in the coal mine--because Japan is getting there well before the rest of the high-income world. Could this also be true for the drivers of demographic aging? In America, too, sexual activity is declining among younger age brackets--as evidenced (among teens) by the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and (among young and midlife adults) by the General Social Survey and the CDC's own sexual behavior and orientation surveys.
- Explanations for this trend in America are numerous. They include later marriage; declining male testosterone levels (see: "You're Not the Man Your Father Was"); rising risk aversion among Millennials (the biggest declines are at the youngest ages); always-on stress; less sleep; more anxiety surrounding cross-gender relationships in the #MeToo era; the eclipsing of in-person interaction by online interaction; and of course the ubiquitous availability of pornography. On some of these fronts, Japan may be ahead of us here as well. Japanese young adults have always been risk averse--to the extent that very few children are born to unmarried parents. Similarly, the rise of ambivalent young U.S. men who doubt their ability to measure up to the adult standard of career, marriage, and manhood (see Nicholas Eberstadt, "Men Without Work") may have been anticipated in Japan by the earlier rise of anti-alpha "herbivores" and the "hikikomori" (young males who choose to live in near total isolation). Back during the sexual revolution, society looked at young Boomers and worried about how we could restrain the libido. Society looks at today's young Millennials and worries about how we can rekindle it.
- In both countries, many Millennials regard sex as an activity that pulls them into adult economic, social, and gender-role expectations. As such, it is highly problematic. It launches them through an onerous rite of passage to an adulthood that they're not sure they want (more often the attitude in Japan) or that they may want but just don't see, practically, how to get there (more often the attitude in America). Either way, the implications of declining sexual activity point not just to fewer children and sinking fertility rates, but more broadly to the unraveling of mores and rituals which used to connect the ambitions of youth to demographic sustainability and national optimism. A failure scenario won't see successive rising generations revolt or rebel. It will simply see them detach--and look on with curiosity as their society literally vanishes decade by decade.
- New longitudinal research shows that adolescents who use vaping products are more likely to smoke traditional cigarettes—and to increase their cigarette use over time. This study adds credibility to the argument that vaping could be a “gateway drug” that helps to create a new generation of smokers. (RAND Corporation)
- NH: As we've remarked elsewhere (see: "FDA Tackles the Teenage Vaping Epidemic"), FDA director Scott Gottlieb is being turned around on this issue--compelled to favor zeroing out the risk that kids will be induced to start smoking over the substantial gains of enabling older smokers to quit. Yes, this study confirms that teens who vape are also more likely to smoke than those who don't vape. Does this prove a causal connection? It may rather reflect the obvious fact that teens who seek out stimulants like nicotine in whatever form are different (in personality and in genetic profile) than those who don't. If vaping were a dangerous new gateway, we might suspect that teen smoking rates would be rising again. But they're not. They're still in steep decline.
- Labor economists have a new explanation for stagnant real wage growth: rising corporate “monopsony” power. When a given market has many service providers but only one buyer (think of a small-town Walmart that employs virtually the entire population), workers have no bargaining power—which could explain why wage growth has been nonexistent even as firms complain of a labor shortage. (Bloomberg Business)
- NH: This is a hot new research topic among economists. We all know that a rising producer market share often enables a firm to raise prices above marginal cost by limiting output--what we call monopoly power. What's less well known is that the opposite is also true: A rising employer market share often enables a firm to depress wages below the worker's marginal product by limiting hiring. That's called monopsony power. As producer concentration grows (see: "Shhh! The Markets Are Concentrating"), it surely would be no surprise to find that employer concentration is also growing. See the heat map by the Roosevelt Institute (below) that color-codes the United States by commuting zone using the same HHI index of "high" and "extreme" employer concentration as is used by the DOJ and FTC for producer concentration. Outside of metro areas, one or two firms dominate all hiring in most occupations. And geographically, oh btw, this is where wage levels are lowest and growing the slowest.
- Indeed, the typical firm's wage power probably exceeds its pricing power because employment markets are more local and opaque than product markets. It's a lot easier for me to search globally for a new firm to buy from than to search globally for a new firm to work for. What's more, many industries have further augmented their firms' wage power by contracts and covenants that would clearly violate antitrust law if they involved products for sale. For retail hires, many franchises sign agreements promising not to "poach" workers from fellow outlets (though many food chains are starting to abjure the practice). For professional hires, firms use noncompete agreements to prevent them from working for a competitor (though courts are starting to disallow them)--or, worse, firms simply make a deal with each other not to hire each other's workers. Unions have historically tried to counterbalance firms' labor monopsony by opposing it with their own labor monopoly. But in recent years, unions have weakened to near insignificance in the private sector.
- The latest Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominee list has unleashed what’s now becoming a familiar complaint: too many Boomers. While some might see the ongoing predominance of ‘70s and ‘80s acts a sign of Boomers’ outsized influence on pop culture, other, younger rock fans like music critic Matt Miller consider it a sign of the Hall’s “rapid descent into irrelevancy.” (Esquire)
- NH: The author makes a very unflattering reference to Gene Simmons (born 1949), the "Demon" of KISS, which is currently trying to pump every last dollar of value out of the group's "last (very last!) farewell tour." The essay is a put-down of all Boomers by an Xer who just can't wait for the Hall of Fame to die along with all the Boomers it celebrates. But wait! Even here, this Xer has to wait in line. Few can do better than uber-Boomer Steve Miller himself in giving the H of F a withering put-down, as he did here a couple of years ago. Boomers, incredibly, can both build up and smash down their own festivities--leaving other generations with nothing to do at all but just shake their heads and walk away.
- NYT contributors Jacey Fortin and Maggie Astor draw several parallels between the divisive America of 1968 and the one in which we reside 50 years later. The notable similarities include strained race relations and political fracturing that marked “the beginning of that turn away from this era of expansive liberalism.” (The New York Times)
- NH: In truth, I can hardly think of two dates more dissimilar than 1968 and 2018. They are, in our terminology, at opposite ends of the historical "saeculum." In 1968, America was in the early stages of an awakening. It was an era in which the rising generation, comfortable in its economic expectations, lashed out at the establishment with an array of social and family experimentations (summer of love, Woodstock, black power, human potential movement, the new left, hippies, yippies, tuning in and dropping out, etc.). And it was an era in which the older generation pushed its civic and social-democratic blueprint to a grandiose scale (Apollo 11, model cities, Great Society, senior entitlements, war on poverty, global dominoes, food for democracy, AARP, affirmative action). Sure, the nation was temporarily shocked at the deaths of RFK and MLK and the riots in Chicago. But long term, everyone took for granted that the nation was heading toward a culturally liberating consciousness revolution (fired by the individualism and creativity of the young) and much greater affluence and equality (guaranteed by the solidarity and investment-orientation of the old). In just about every respect, this outlook is diametrically the opposite of where we are today.
- A new Brookings report finds that, for the first time ever, a majority of global citizens qualify as “middle class” or “rich.” This long-awaited global tipping point has been reached thanks in large part to the explosion of the middle class in emerging markets like China. (Brookings Institution)
- NH: Yes, this global decline in poverty (and accompanying global rise in income equality) has been pretty much entirely driven by the dramatic increase in (PPP-dollar) living standards in East and Southeast Asia. This region used to be among the poorest and most populous in the world. Today, most of it is close to "middle income" status. Sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, has seen little improvement--and today constitutes nearly all of the "extreme poverty" that remains. (See Economist chart below.) Yet even if income equality across the globe is declining, the income inequality within countries continues to grow. And it is this latter measure which probably does most to drive politics in a populist and authoritarian direction.
- On the eve of the midterms, op-ed writer Timothy Egan asks: “After Ruining Mayonnaise, Can Millennials Save America?” Egan, a left-leaning Boomer, minces no words in a piece imploring Millennials to vote, saying that he’s given up on Boomers to run the government and only young people can rescue the nation from “an entitled, pampered, and aging minority.” (The New York Times)
- Prada hopes that a new social media blitz aimed at affluent Millennial consumers will help it catch up to its industry peers. For fear of missing out on an entire generation of digital-savvy consumers, Prada will risk disturbing the carefully crafted image of scarcity and mystique that underpins all luxury brands. (Bloomberg Business)
- Abandoned by sugar-averse moms, juicemaker Welch’s is targeting a new demographic: Gen-X men. The company’s latest campaign, which swaps sun-drenched fields and smiling kids for dimly lit kitchens, hulking men, and menacing grape-crushing machines, certainly strikes an Xer chord—but comes off as a bit troglodytic. (Advertising Age)
- NH: Imagine a pastoral and family-friendly grape juice commercial as it might be remade by Quentin Tarantino or the directors of "The Sopranos." That's what you've got here. These ads are well done. The only question is, can Xer guys save grape juice--now that moms and kids are fleeing all forms of fruit juice (at the up-market end) due to its concentrated fructose load? Welch's is staking its entire appeal on the efficacy of antioxidants. Unfortunately, even here the epidemiological evidence is beginning to weaken. While there are dietary choices that people can make to improve their health, the blind pursuit of antioxidants is probably not one of them.
- Fully 57% of Millennials say they would give up sex for six months in exchange for a free trip around the world, compared to just 41% who would give up their cell phone. Young adults will give up almost anything to satisfy their wanderlust—so long as they can stay connected during their dream trip. (Contiki)
DID YOU KNOW?
Planners Write a New Success Story. Millennials have been knocked (fairly or not) for “killing” everything from marriage to mayonnaise. At the same time, however, they may be saving a woebegone industry: paper. Millennials reportedly are driving up demand for planners and bullet journals. In recent years, popular brands—including California-based ban.do—have seen these items rocket up the list of best-sellers. The Millennial love affair with planners has been memorialized in social media hashtags like #bujo (short for “bullet journal”) and #omgbandoagenda (referring to the ban.do brand). What’s going on? Planners help Millennials keep track of their notoriously busy, side-gig-heavy schedules. The ability to plan and curate their existence also gives Millennials a sense of control over their daily lives, which can help reduce anxiety. (See: “The Young and the Anxious.”) Yet another motivating factor is the desire to show off an Instagram-worthy planner page to social media followers. But beware, says psychologist Perpetua Neo: Striving for the picture-perfect post could defeat the purpose of planners by increasing stress levels.
