With all the oxygen being consumed over the last two weeks with the Kavanaugh debate, tariffs on Chinese imports, and most recently, the stunning first-round election results of right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, there is one important issue flying under the radar: Vladimir Putin’s continued meddling in the Balkans.
- The history of the region is an important guide for current Putin mischief: for well over a century, Russia has sought strategic influence in the Slavic region of the western Balkans – today’s Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Serbia especially. When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia in July 1914, following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Russia quickly mobilized its army to defend the Serbs, a key escalatory step in the crisis that ultimately led to WWI.
- After the war, and throughout the Communist era, Moscow’s Balkan focus never diminished; as Yugoslavia dissolved in 1991, Russian strategists saw opportunities to forge new relationships in the former Yugoslav republics.
That strategic effort largely failed. Vladimir Putin and the Russian military have never gotten over the U.S. role in settling the Balkan war in the 90’s; they also deeply resented the U.S. pushing the admission to NATO of countries that they consider in their historic “sphere of influence:” Croatia, Slovenia, Albania and most recently, Montenegro. The “loss” of the deep-water ports in Montenegro - Bar and Kotar - when Montenegro was admitted to NATO two years ago was a strategic setback for both Putin and the Russian Navy.
- Recall, in Montenegro, Russian intelligence operatives tried to assassinate the current PM, Dusko Markovic; they also conducted influence operations, to sabotage the vote on the country’s NATO admission. They failed here as well; but the subversion campaign continues to this day.
Now the focus is Macedonia. The Macedonian leadership last June appeared to have settled a 27-year dispute with Greece over the name of the country: Greeks were apoplectic that the country might be called “Macedonia,” feeling that it suggests territorial claims on Greece’s northern border; Athens had blocked any Macedonian move to join NATO as a result.
- The June deal between the two countries included an agreement on a new name for the Balkan country: “The Republic of North Macedonia.” However, to cement the deal in Macedonia and clear the path for both NATO and EU membership, it had to pass a national referendum on September 30th.
- While those who voted in the referendum supported the initiative by overwhelming majorities, it failed to pass a “50%” turn-out threshold. Not surprisingly, Russian influence operations worked overtime to produce just this result – an effort laid bare by Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis when he visited Skopje (the Macedonian capital) in the days prior to the vote.
- All is not lost on the admission of a potential 30th NATO member: the Macedonian PM is laboring with Parliament to forge a deal over the coming days; but the effort has been made much harder, thanks to Putin’s mischief. Of course, Russian maneuvers to block the PM’s next steps will now only intensify.
Beyond Macedonia, however, watch for the other European elections into 2019; they are a veritable smorgasbord for Russian influence operations: EU Parliamentary elections in the spring, and especially the parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine at about the same time. Russian media interest in the current Italian right-left political cat-fight and the UK’s efforts to break their Brexit impasse early in the new year will also be too tempting to pass up.
Bottom Line: As his Balkan meddling only highlights, Vladimir’s game plan for Europe - to restore what he sees as the proper Russian “sphere of influence,” while dividing the U.S. from its traditional allies - clearly continues unabated.
