TPR is back into ‘battleground’ territory, and has set up for one of the best buying opportunities in retail – in stark contrast to most names in the group where risk is skewed to the downside. We’re releasing a Black Book on Thursday, October 18th – to outline the multi-year levers that are underappreciated by the consensus related to ‘elevated and sustained’ growth in the core, licensing upside, margin optionality through the organization – especially with KATE – and ultimately $6.40 per share in free cash by year three of our model. Yes, there near term risks such as China/trade (on many levels) and risk to the US retail environment. But we think that these multi-year levers begin to pay off sooner than later…in other words, you don’t have to wait a year+ to begin to get paid. Even accounting for these risks – the same ones that cost TPR 15% of its market cap over the past month – we’re getting to 10% upside in earnings for the year and a roadmap to near $5 in earnings power and an $80 stock. The company is entering harvesting mode after four years of investment and the resulting financial model is too superior to ignore (and the consensus is not aware of it) – which we think will prove buying TPR in the $40s with a 15% underlying FCF yield a complete no-brainer.
Call Details
Date: Thursday, October 18th, 2018 @ 10:00am
Toll Free:
Toll:
UK: 0
Confirmation Number: 13683696
Link: Will be Provided Prior to the Call
