Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from this month's edition of ETF Pro, our monthly newsletter that distills our Macro team's global economic outlook and provides our favorite ETF ideas. Click here to learn more about ETF Pro.
With the 32 countries we track having all reported Manufacturing PMI data for the month of August, not much has changed in terms of the global economic impulse – i.e. decidedly negative.
Specifically, 58% of economies slowed on a sequential basis and 81% are (still) slowing on a trending basis. Moreover, 88% of the economies' Services PMI data that we track are (still) slowing on a trending basis as well as of the August releases.
Macro Tourists will have you believe this is all about something un-forecastable like “trade tensions.” It's worth mentioning that the JPM Global Manufacturing PMI peaked in December – well ahead of any trade concerns and before tariffs materialized. The reporting of that data point was, however, right around when we published our Global #Divergences theme using [accurate] mathematically-oriented forecasting techniques.