Macro Monday: Stagflation Risks & Opportunities

The market is at a pivotal moment. As we navigate persistent inflation and geopolitical change, Hedgeye remains focused on helping you capitalize on the most lucrative investment opportunities. 

Here’s your Macro Monday update: Top 3 Macro Trends

1. Stagflation Ahead: Growth Slowing. Inflation on the Rise. 

• Our Macro team forecasts slowing economic growth ahead—with spurts of accelerating growth.
• The one constant will likely be accelerating inflation.
• Navigating this dynamic will be critical for your investing success. 

2. China’s Short-Term Growth 

While long-term risks in China remain, government stimulus, favorable export conditions, and bullish signals in key markets make China a compelling investment opportunity in the near term.  

3. Commodities in Focus 

Stagflation favors assets that benefit from inflation. That’s why we remain bullish on Gold (GLD) and certain commodities like Uranium (URA), which fit well within this setup.

Potential Buying Opportunities: 

• Top Sectors in Stagflation/Reflation: Wait for bullish signals from Tech, Energy, and others in our “Quads” map. 

• Inflation Assets: Select commodities and fixed-income options designed for inflationary environments.
  

High-Risk Sectors & Asset Classes: 

• Underperforming Sectors: Communication Services and Materials tend to perform poorly when inflation accelerates. 

• Stagflation Losers: Credit is among the low performers—as are Dividend Yield and Value style funds. 

Get Hedgeye’s real-time list of high-conviction ETF ideas in ETF Pro Plus!

Fact of the Day: American Realities 

Here are 5 things that are top of mind for all Americans:  

1. 66% feel they are “living paycheck to paycheck” 

2. 49% consider themselves to be “broke” 

3. "Food scarcity" is rising dramatically 

4. "Food at home" inflation is +25% since the Pandemic hit 

5. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion in 3Q, 8.1% higher than a year ago.  

Navigating Stagflation & Reflation with Confidence: 

ETF Pro Plus is your actionable ETF investing playbook, powered by Hedgeye’s disciplined, rules-based investment process.  

Here’s what you get: 

• High-conviction long and short ETF ideas. 

• Keith McCullough’s Buy/Sell trend “levels” for each ETF 

• Monthly market outlook explaining our ETF selections 

• Immediate alerts when ETFs get added or removed 

Get Hedgeye’s experienced analysts and proven Macro research process working for your portfolio. 

Try ETF Pro Plus today!