NEWSWIRE: 9/17/18
- The FDA recently sent cease-and-desist letters to nearly 1,200 retailers accused of selling e-cigarettes to minors. The agency is also calling on top e-cigarette manufacturers to submit plans that would curb sales to minors and stem the emerging “epidemic” of teenage vaping. (The Washington Post)
- NH: FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb has been walking a knife-edge on this issue. Originally, he wanted to create a safe space for the vape industry to increase the likelihood that millions of Xers and Boomers might quit cigarettes. Everyone acknowledges that vaping nicotine alone is vastly safer than inhaling tobacco smoke, a witch's brew containing carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, cyanide, and dozens of known carcinogens. On the other hand, parents, educators, and anti-smoking groups are expressing alarm at the rapid rise in vaping among teens and young adults who have never smoked before. Everyone also acknowledges that nicotine, while not terribly harmful, is extremely addictive (on par with cocaine or opioids)--which sets up a whole new generation for a lifetime of dangerous dependency. The first official survey in 2017 found that 8% of 8th graders and 11% of 12th graders have vaped nicotine within the last 30 days--and a new (as-yet-unpublished) FDA survey shows that this rate has risen sharply in 2018. Which has pushed Gottlieb to walk back his promises to the vaping industry. Juul, the smart, "cool" brand that dominates the youth market, is privately held. So upon the FDA's announcement, Big Tobacco brands like MO jumped--either because investors perceive their "smokeless" solutions have a new edge or because they think vaping's overall challenge to old-fashioned smoking has just been slowed.
- A near-record share (20%) of kids have expressed concern to their parents about feeling unsafe at school. It’s unclear whether this is due to the “Parkland effect” or increased safety measures like active shooter drills, but despite the perceptions of danger, schools are safer than ever. (Gallup)
- NH: Family worries are up. But that's because parental tolerance of risk to children is declining faster than any objective measure of those risks. According to a biannual comprehensive CDC survey, nearly every bad thing you can think of (such as fighting in school, carrying a weapon to school, and consuming drugs or alcohol at school) have declined dramatically over the last fifteen years. This includes school shootings. (See: "A New Generation Takes Aim in the Gun Debate.") And yes, it even includes bullying. Still, perception is king. Schools and parents will continue to push harder to make school a danger-free zone for Homelanders.
- Gillette is preparing to release the Treo, the first razor designed for caregivers to shave men who can’t shave themselves. It’s the first of many similar items to come from P&G, which joins scores of manufacturers and retailers now betting big on the sleeping giant that is the over-65 market. (The Washington Post)
- NH: Great product idea. With demographic forecasts so easily accessible, it's amazing that the shaving companies have been battling themselves toward razor-thin margins (as it were) in quest of the young adult market, which is not growing at all, and ignoring the 65+ market, which will be surging for the next 20 years. The article nicely summarizes the efforts of other firms (Best Buy, CVS, Target) to re-imagine the older consumer as a profitable opportunity.
- Legacy brands are making themselves “Millennial-friendly” by displaying a sense of purpose. The best performers, however, aren’t just talking the talk; they’re like dishwashing liquid Dawn, which has held its own against upstart competition by highlighting its long history of wildlife activism. (The New York Times)
- NH: The Millennial preference for "purpose-driven" brands has an interesting overlap with their preference for legacy brands--that is, brands that celebrate how traditional they are. Everyone is slapping a "since 1902" (or whatever) on their messaging. Millennials' parents preferred modern or "now" brands that pretended they were wholly invented yesterday. Millennials are returning to the grandparents' brands, which testified to their skill at doing something by telling you how long they have actually been doing it.
- Attendance at Burning Man-esque “transformational” festivals is booming in the United States. These festivals, which celebrate nature, mindfulness, and the art of self-expression, are the latest example of how Boomer values continue to influence the broader culture. (The Economist)
- NH: A major reason why Boomer parents feel so close to their Millennial kids is the evaporating "generation gap" in the culture. Boomers hated their parents' culture and ultimately created a whole new "youth" culture in the 1960s and '70s to replace it. That culture has aged with them and, surprisingly, remains popular and respected among younger generations. (See: "The Aging of Aquarius.") These new-age festivals are a case in point: While Millennials and Xers enjoy them, Boomers can feel delicious nostalgia.
- Self-driving vehicle companies are hitting the brakes, with some executives admitting that consumer-ready level 5 autonomy is much further away than previously anticipated. As we’ve pointed out before, it will take decades for full autonomy to clear the many technological and societal hurdles in its path. (The Wall Street Journal)
- NH: You heard it here first. We got loads of oh-you're-just-a-Luddite flak when we first questioned the absurdly accelerating timeline announced by Silicon Valley and Detroit for the introduction of fully autonomous vehicles to the general market. (See: "Have Autonomous Vehicles Hit a Roadblock?" and "Driverless Cars: Unsafe at Any Speed?") Now, it seems, pretty much everyone (even Waymo CEO John Krafcik) is agreeing with our objections. Uber is considering abandoning its driverless car project altogether. And it now turns out that nearly every driverless car enterprise (Uber especially) was overselling the reliability of its trial data. More broadly, the public seems to have difficulty understanding what AI is--and is not--capable of. This is the subject of an interesting new book by computer scientist Meredith Broussard, Artificial Unintelligence: How Computers Misunderstand the World. In the long run, sure, everything will come to pass. We'll get our driverless car. We may even get our cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, those who've been burned by an overhyped technology can always take solace in the "Gartner Hype Cycle" (see below), which enables you to see beyond your current disillusionment and peer into a future in which your dreams are finally realized.
- In 2019, General Mills plans to nearly triple the PTO offered to new parents and add time for caregivers of ill family members. The goal is to support workers at “all life stages,” a rare acknowledgment of the adults increasingly strained for time and money at both ends of the age spectrum. (CBS News)
- Unlike young adults in previous generations, more 16- to 25-year-olds say that their parents talk to them about money than about sex and drugs. That’s life as a Millennial in a nutshell: more likely to be calling Mom and Dad with questions about their bank balances than to be running wild. (Charles Schwab)
- When it comes to socially responsible investing, Millennials prefer companies that are taking action toward social change, while Boomers prefer companies that match their values. Gen X, meanwhile, cares most about their rate of return—making the “socially responsible” part somewhat of an afterthought. (TD Ameritrade)
- NH: The data on how much each generation "considers" socially responsible investment are hard to assess, because Millennials and Boomers differ so hugely in how much investment they're actually doing: "Considering" is a lot easier when the dollars are small and your retirement is not literally on the line. On the other hand, the survey's data on how generations differ in their understanding of social responsibility are fascinating. Boomers tend to think of it as investing in firms that don't do certain things (e.g., hurt the environment). They also focus more on core culture-war issues (religion, diversity, human rights). Millennials, by contrast, think of a socially responsible firm as one that is actively promoting a happier, more equitable, or more sustainable world. They ask whether a firm is doing the right thing--not so much whether a firm is not doing the wrong thing.
- This month marks the launch of Primephonic, the first streaming service dedicated solely to classical music. While this is great news for classical lovers, it’s hard to imagine how a service with such a niche (and aging) audience will be able to overcome the revenue challenges that have stymied its competitors. (Los Angeles Times)
- NH: I'm totally on this. But I prefer to think of myself as more niche than aging!
DID YOU KNOW?
Do It for the (Fur) Children. We’ve discussed before how Millennials are treating pets as part of the family. (See: “Pet Care: The Four-Legged Bull Market.”) As it turns out, this generation’s devotion to their furry friends is even impacting their homebuying activity. A staggering 79% of pet-owning Millennial homebuyers surveyed by Realtor.com say they would pass up an otherwise-perfect home if it didn’t meet the needs of their pets. One real estate agent who has witnessed this trend firsthand is 31-year-old Jessica Evans, who says that the top priority among prospective Millennial homebuyers is outdoor space—or at least close proximity to a park. Being a pet owner herself, Evans understands where her peers are coming from. She even decided to sacrifice the urban lifestyle she loved for the sake of her own pet: "I loved living in the downtown area in a condo. It was great, very convenient, I didn't have housework, but the one thing that was really missing was my dog's happiness."
