... Did I mention Brazil? The damndest thing happened as Darius Dale and I were going door-to-door meeting with Institutional Investors in New York City yesterday. Some people were simply not happy that we remain bearish of Brazil.
So I got in the car and reviewed why so many hedge funds got pro-cyclically long of Brazilian Credit and/or Equities during 2017 and the double-damndest thing became glaringly obvious in our 4 quadrant GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) model:
Amongst other things, if you’re looking at a multi-country (multi-factor) and multi-duration dashboard of rate of change risk this morning, you’ll note that the only major country 10yr Yield that is UP by more than a few beeps is Brazil’s...