Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt transcribed from an interview between Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale and CNN Money's Paula Newton. Click here to watch the interview.
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CNN Money’s Paula Newton: We’re talking about the tariffs and the potential impact that could have. Hedgeye’s Darius Dale: I’ll tell your viewers the same thing we tell our institutional clients. Every moment you spend discussing these Macro Tourist topics like trade and tariffs is a moment you don’t spend doing your actual job. The only thing that the market really cares about is the rate of change in growth, inflation and profits. It’s our job as analysts is to sequence those things and know where they’re going. Newton: Now when I say 'cautious about trade' wouldn’t it better to be on the sidelines and say ‘You know what? I have to hedge this because these $200 billion in tariffs coming in on China can have a real impact.' It’s not a fiction of the financial press. Dale: And I'd say what’s $200 billion to an economy of $18 trillion or $20 trillion like the U.S.? What really matters is the fact that growth in the United States is peaking and it’s going to rollover over the next three quarters. Inflation is peaking and by the way, profits are peaking as well. So that’s what markets are really keying off as it relates to any future volatility. Newton: Some people still say we’re going to have 4% GDP. What do you say to that? Dale: Not even close. So we’re tracking at 2.6% for Q3 (on a quarter-over-quarter SAAR basis) and all the way down at 1% for Q4 and this is just with growth cresting (as we measure it on a year-over-year basis). If we start to see some material hit from this emerging market contagion or these tariffs, those numbers are actually going quite lower. |
