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Wheat prices spiked overnight after a slew of bullish news reports from Eastern Europe and the Middle East were digested, only to give up much of the ground in the face of large volume sellers this afternoon.

The big three data points driving market action in the past two sessions are:
  • • The Government Statistical Office of Poland –the third largest EU wheat producer, has predicted this year’s harvest may be as much as 9% lower than last year’s after unseasonably dry weather in June and July damaged crops.
  • • The continued chatter in western media outlets that Iran is about to announce a large wheat purchase that will be spread amongst the US, Canada, Russia and the EU. For its part, the media in Iran has been reporting heavily on grain stock levels -last Monday’s edition of the newspaper E'temad-e Melli carried the headline "Wheat Import and Management crisis in Agricultural Sector".
  • • Russian Vice Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov was quoted in TASS today assuring farmers that "The Agriculture Ministry has been instructed to create an intervention fund of no less than five million tons of food grain and not less than three million tons of fodder grain by mid-August.” The fund is meant to alleviate price pressure resulting from higher yields in central Russia this season.
  • Andrew Barber
Volume Spiking Over the SEP 08' Contract Prices