The haunting, six-century-old Korean song "Ariran" evokes separation and sorrow in tune and tone; but it remains enormously popular in Korean culture, viewed in the South as the "unofficial national anthem."
- I thought of "Ariran" - introduced to me when I served in Korea - as President Trump scrubbed Secretary of State Pompeo's trip to Pyongyang and as optimism on North Korea spirals downward. Although the trip cancellation (and Vice President Pence's as well) came as no surprise, the sadness the White House announcements evoked was for sitting South Korean President Moon Jae In and the millions of South Koreans who are emotionally invested in rapprochement with the North.
Despite Trump's continuing rosy assessments of his relationship with Kim Jong Un, it's clear that nothing has been done to advance North Korean denuclearization. And candidly, nothing is likely to be done, at least over the near-term.
- China, of course, continues to be key. The PRC has effectively negated the impact of UN sanctions on North Korea by trading across the Yalu; and while Trump may decry Beijing's lack of cooperation, the Chinese know leverage when they see it. Their patter line? "Mr. Trump, you want help on North Korea? Then let's solve the trade disputes!"
The appointment of Steve Biegun as U.S. Special Representative for North Korea, just prior to the announcement of Pompeo's trip cancellation, was intriguing: while Biegun doesn't have extensive Korean experience (except for trade), Steve is a tough-minded advocate.
- Key will be who Pyongyang appoints as his counterpart. While there appeared to be some element of trust when North Korean Foreign Minister Ri was Pompeo's interlocutor, no such pleasantries were obvious from lesser figures - including a raft of deputy ministers and military figures who continue to lash out at the U.S. with bombastic fury.
- As everyone who has negotiated with the North can attest (Chris Hill, Bill Perry, Bob Gallucci, amongst others), patience will be a sorely needed attribute for the head of the U.S. team; but from personal experience, patience does not seem to be a Biegun long-suit.
Where does all of this lead? To months, if not years, of tough, tough sledding, just to get to first base - like a statement of negotiating principles that's more than the pablum from the Singapore declaration, plus a North Korean disclosure of their nuclear assets, the absence of which led in part to the foundering of the 2005 agreement.
- The end result will not be "CVID" (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Disarmament), as much as Secretary Pompeo likes to repeat those words.
- If the negotiations don't collapse entirely - and the most recent North Korean statements are not encouraging - the Trump "best case" will likely be a North Korea that's allowed to keep a small number of nukes, subject to a verification regime less complete than the JCPOA (the Iran deal), and with acknowledgment that Pyongyang has the right to enrich in limited amounts.
- IF this is accomplished (a big IF), we will be better off than we were a year ago - no taunts, no missile and nuclear testing by the North; but it's certainly not "CVID." And it is certainly a far less robust deal than the JCPOA that Trump abandoned in May.
This will be hard to spin; but spinning it will be. And the "Ariran" tune will resonate as a back-drop.
