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Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones. Click here to learn more.

Speaking of oil . . .

WTI is down another -1.8% this morning and Brent (September) is down -1.7% to $74.04.  For WTI, this is a decline of more than 5% in just over a week.  Whether it be the Russians talking about increasing production, the U.S. whispering about releasing emergency reserves, or Saudi Arabia offering additional cargoes for Asian customers, it seems the reality is sinking in that the world is not short on oil.  Note: despite the recent decline WTI is still in Bullish Trend in our Hedgeye Risk Ranges.

The sequential decline in the oil price is a continued tailwind for our view that inflation may be peaking domestically in the July-ish time frame. In the Chart of the Day below, we highlight our current view of the trajectory of inflation, which we see peaking then rolling into the end of the year.  

CHART OF THE DAY: Oil Prices + Inflation Trajectory - Chart of the Day

CHART OF THE DAY: Oil Prices + Inflation Trajectory - market brief