The ultimate economic impact of President Trump’s trade tariffs remains to be seen. Still, brand-new trade data provides some interesting results, particularly among tariff-sensitive industries.
As Hedgeye Macro analyst Christian Drake highlights on a recent episode of The Macro Show, June trade data saw an enormous jump in soybean exports. Unsurprisingly, it’s one of the industries most affected by the new Chinese tariffs. The huge spike in soybean exports contributed to a 9.1% lift in the overall quarter-over-quarter trade balance.
“Get them out while you can before the tariffs hit,” Drake explains in the clip above.
“Soybean exports were up almost 90% - almost a double sequentially – month-over-month.”
That translates to more than $4 billion in soybean exports (seasonally adjusted) in that short time frame. Consequently, that will likely be a net positive for GDP in the second quarter, but it’s likely a short-term fix.
We’re calling for GDP to slow starting in 3Q18.