From Overlooked to Opportunity
Unilever (UL)—maker of Dove, Hellmann’s, and Vaseline—wasn’t exactly on many investors’ radar earlier this year. But that’s exactly when we flagged it.
- March 10, 2025: Analyst Daniel Biolsi added UL to the long side of his Consumer Staples Position Monitor.
- March 19, 2025: Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough issued a Buy Signal and added UL to Investing Ideas—our favorite long-term stock ideas.
- March 20, 2025: Biolsi upgraded UL to a Best Idea Long—our highest level of conviction.
Since Keith's signal turned bullish on March 19, UL was up +8% as of the close on April 23. But this isn’t just a bounce. It’s a bigger shift in how the company is being viewed.
FUNDAMENTAL: A SIMPLER, STRONGER BUSINESS TAKES SHAPE
Unilever is making the kind of moves we look for in a great stock: cutting the clutter, focusing on what works, and proving it in the numbers. Here’s what’s changed:
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Divestments that sharpen focus: UL announced it’s spinning off its entire Ice Cream segment—historically a lower-margin, capital-heavy business. A week later, it sold The Vegetarian Butcher, a plant-based brand that didn’t fit the broader food strategy.
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Premium brands are leading: In the U.S., Unilever has posted 15 straight quarters of double-digit growth in its non-Ice Cream business. Personal Care and Wellness—think Nutrafol, Dermalogica, Vaseline—are driving the charge.
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New CEO, real execution: Fernando Fernandez isn’t just talking about change. He’s making it. His compensation is tied to free cash flow and earnings—not vanity metrics. He’s divesting underperforming units and reallocating to brands with pricing power and scale.
Add it all up, and you’ve got a leaner, faster-moving company that’s starting to look more like a premium global consumer brand than a slow-growth food conglomerate.
QUANTITATIVE: bullish SIGNAL
Keith McCullough’s Risk Range™ Signals are designed to help investors navigate price volatility with discipline. It uses price, volume, and volatility to define the probable range in which a stock will trade. Keith's signals help Hedgeye subscribers manage entries, exits, and position sizing—without emotion or guesswork.
Right now, the signal on Unilever is Bullish. That means the upward trend is intact, and the setup favors staying long. Especially when combined with a strong fundamental case and a favorable macro backdrop.
MACRO RISK ANALYSIS: A MULTINATIONAL SET UP TO WIN
Unilever is benefiting from more than just internal changes. The big-picture environment is working in its favor too.
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Europe is in Quad 2 (growth and inflation both accelerating)—a regime where global consumer companies tend to outperform.
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Emerging markets account for over half of Unilever’s sales. Hedgeye’s Macro team sees key regions like India and China entering growth-supportive regimes, with central banks easing and demand improving.
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The U.S. dollar is weakening—which makes foreign earnings more valuable and supports earnings momentum for global brands like UL.
Though global economic uncertainty persists, Unilever benefits from plenty of Macro tailwinds.
Why It Matters
Unilever is the kind of setup our process is built to identify: a company improving beneath the surface, with Macro and Quantitative signals lining up before the Street catches on.
We flagged it early. The move is underway. And if the signal shifts, our subscribers will be the first to know.
Want to know when it’s time to buy more—or take profits? Subscribe to Real-Time Alerts or Investing Ideas and get Keith McCullough’s signal the moment it changes.
Because in markets, timing is everything—and our process is built to get it right.
