CHART OF THE DAY: Is Global Growth (and Trade) Back?

Taking a step back, when accounting for cyclical data, it’s critical to know where you are on the sine curve. As you can see in today’s Chart of the Day, going back to the prior Global GDP Cycle peak:

1. Real Global GDP growth peaked at +3.7% growth back in Q3 of 2014
2. Real Global GDP growth bottomed at +2.1% growth in Q4 of 2015
3. Real Global GDP growth re-accelerated to +3.8% growth in Q3 of 2017 

In Q4 of 2017, Chinese and European growth started to slow vs. the epic Chinese stimulus of 2016. That unprecedented fiscal and monetary Chinese stimulus is not happening in 2018.