Financial markets are getting jittery. U.S. inflation has surprised to the upside in recent months, while our forecasts suggest U.S. growth is beginning to slow.
Where growth and inflation go from here is going to be a tricky path to navigate. In particular, there’s a lot of risk to manage between now and when Hedgeye is calling for growth and inflation to slow in the later months of this 2018. (It’s worth noting that when U.S. growth and inflation slow at the same time that’s a particularly challenging environment for investors).
“The market is debating a topping process,” Hedgeye Macro analyst Darius Dale says in the above clip. “At some point the market is going to look at [steep base effects] and price those in, but it’s only May. We’re talking about forecasts for Q4 of 2018.”
Hedgeye is calling for inflation to continue to rise throughout the summer before pulling back. Dale reminds investors, however, that the pullbacks in growth and inflation are “not material.” Anyone calling for the next recession is likely just trying to scare you.
It's going to get increasingly difficult for investors as we progress throughout 2018. Keep measuring and mapping the data.
Watch the clip above for more.