Key sentiment callouts from investor meetings over the past two days.
- NKE: people think it’s a short today. Don’t go there before it beats the quarter. ADS interest is waning – not for me.
- I got my first interest in Puma, a name I am incrementally positive on. Ditto for Kering.
- TPR – people buying into the non-consensus licensing angle, but by and large think it is too small and too long dated. They’ll be wrong on that.
- “If TPR works, KORS will work more.” Yes it should work, but not more. Not the same licensing optionality at KORS.
- UA hot topic, people net bullish on margin opportunity – prob right near term but for wrong reasons.
- Auto parts net bearish vs. last time I was in Boston last month – except AZO – which I find puzzling. I’m more bearish there.
- KSS company talked down the quarter over the last two weeks. There’s your stock weakness.
- Little interest in HBI short as the view appears to be that the stock is too washed out to revisit the short here – I disagree.
- Incremental interest in our long VFC call, which is interesting given that maybe three people have called me on it since we upped it to a Best Idea nearly two weeks ago.
- Modest interest in CRI – I’m getting very bearish there. Hoping it blows away the quarter tomorrow.
- AAP still losing support in the HF community. Two people commented on concern about CFO departure as a nail in the coffin. I’m incrementally bullish here.
- ORLY consensus is officially that it’s a long term long, and short term short.
- Big concern about RH guiding to a down comp in the current quarter. I’ll take the over on that one (ie a positive comp).
- LULU: How the heck can I own this stock after a 65% run and pushing $100? Yeah, I get it. But we’ll need a fundamental catalyst to break it. Not gonna happen.
- FL sentiment incrementally bullish. “It’s so damn cheap.” Until it’s not at a lower price. This is the new LB.
- ULTA – sentiment is split down the middle on this one. No apathy. Either hatred or love. I’m emotionless. Only way I can own this is if I can justify a 2,000 store concept at 200-300bp higher GM. Stay tuned for our ULTA Black Book.
- DKS “it’s so damn cheap” like FL. Incremental long interest. I noted my concern about customer loss bc of how hard Stack is driving the anti-gun crowd.
- W – questions of valuation (irrelevant) and when growth slows (very relevant). Growth slows in 3Q after today’s Way Day pops top line in 2Q.
- TGT – would you miss it if it was gone? I disagree with the view that this will go away. There’s both terminal value and equity value here. If things come to a point where TGT goes away then my ‘#retail5.0’ thesis will have shifted into #retail6.0’ about a decade too early.
