Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from this morning's Early Look market note.
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After spending last week seeing clients in London, I spent the last 2 days seeing some of our New York City based accounts. I’m starting to believe that the #1 risk to Global Macro markets would be an arrest of the US Dollar’s decline. To be clear, intermediate-term bottoms are processes, not points. Bearish intermediate-term @Hedgeye macro TRENDs have a central tendency to draw consensus macro into the position AFTER the move. Then a potential bottoming process begins. Mathematically speaking, bottoming processes start with a series of immediate-term TRADE signals of higher-lows. Not surprisingly, both the US Dollar Index and front-month US Equity Volatility (VIX) are signaling higher-lows, at the same time. Are the USD and VIX one and the same thing right now? |
