• Investing replay

    HEDGEYE INVESTING SUMMIT

    SPECIAL HEDGEYE TV EVENT

    The sharpest minds in investing discuss the most important market and economic developments and their investing implications.
    Watch the free replay.

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from this morning's Early Look market note. It was written by our U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake.

I wanted to re-highlight the base effect dynamics for a couple reasons:

  1. It’s not our call that growth is at risk of imminent collapse.  We’re simply and proactively highlighting the impending 2nd derivative reality - a reality that may be increasingly relevant to asset prices if domestic growth accelerating does, indeed, peak in 1H18.  
  2. We got a sample of this dynamic in yesterday’s Durable and Capital Goods data for January.

The Data: 

  • Headline Durable Goods = -3.7% M/M and decelerating -440bps to +6.8% Y/Y
  • Durables Ex-Defense and Aircraft (i.e. the closest proxy for stuff actual households purchase) = -1.0% M/M and decelerating -200bps to +6.1% Y/Y

CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Durable Goods - CoD1 Durables Ex Defense   Aircraft Comp