CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Durable Goods

I wanted to re-highlight the base effect dynamics for a couple reasons:

1. It’s not our call that growth is at risk of imminent collapse.  We’re simply and proactively highlighting the impending 2^nd derivative reality - a reality that may be increasingly relevant to asset prices if domestic growth accelerating does, indeed, peak in 1H18.  
2. We got a sample of this dynamic in yesterday’s Durable and Capital Goods data for January.

The Data: 

• Headline Durable Goods = -3.7% M/M and decelerating -440bps to +6.8% Y/Y
• Durables Ex-Defense and Aircraft (i.e. the closest proxy for stuff actual households purchase) = -1.0% M/M and decelerating -200bps to +6.1% Y/Y