CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Durable Goods
Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from this morning's Early Look market note. It was written by our U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake.
I wanted to re-highlight the base effect dynamics for a couple reasons:
- It’s not our call that growth is at risk of imminent collapse. We’re simply and proactively highlighting the impending 2nd derivative reality - a reality that may be increasingly relevant to asset prices if domestic growth accelerating does, indeed, peak in 1H18.
- We got a sample of this dynamic in yesterday’s Durable and Capital Goods data for January.
- Headline Durable Goods = -3.7% M/M and decelerating -440bps to +6.8% Y/Y
- Durables Ex-Defense and Aircraft (i.e. the closest proxy for stuff actual households purchase) = -1.0% M/M and decelerating -200bps to +6.1% Y/Y
© 2022 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.