DRIVING THE WEEK:
- President Trump will travel to a manufacturing plant in Cincinnati today to pitch the benefits of the Republican tax plan.
- Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Adam Schiff - the panel's ranking Democrat - is expected to offer a motion to release his party's 10-page response to a controversial Republican memo alleging surveillance abuses by the Justice Department.
- Speaker Paul Ryan is expected to bring another short-term funding bill to a vote as soon as Tuesday, February 6. The current continuing resolution is slated to expire this Thursday, February 8, and the new stopgap measure would fund the government through March 22 (date certain is still tentative, but late March). Leaders of both parties continue to grapple with a number of big-ticket items: defense spending, domestic spending levels, an immigration deal – and soon raising the debt ceiling. The deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling before the United States exhausts its borrowing authority will come during the first half of March, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
- While Republicans still need to herd defense and conservative cats in the House, it appears as if Senate Democrats are no mood to stand in the way of another stopgap funding bill. Expect the usual drama here in Washington this week, but leaders will need to focus like a laser in March as we wrote last week. The current Republican offer on the table for a long-term bill is $54B for defense and $37B for non-defense as well as ~$300B/two years. And, with an expiration date of March 5 and floor action planned in the Senate as promised by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a DACA compromise remains elusive. Watch for a number of Senate compromises to emerge this week including the bipartisan McCain/Coons effort.
- SEC Chairman Jay Clayton and CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, February 6 regarding federal oversight of virtual currencies like bitcoin. In addition to falling in value over the past month, bitcoin-related firms have come under scrutiny from regulators like the CFTC.
- Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, February 6 to deliver his annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
- House Democrats are scheduled to leave for their retreat on Wednesday, February 7 - putting pressure on Ryan to pass a stopgap measure before they depart for Cambridge, MD.
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Also on Wednesday, VEEP Mike Pence will be in Japan for the first leg of his trip to Asia. He is scheduled to hold meetings and a dinner with PM Shinzo Abe. He will continue on to South Korea on Thursday, February 8 and will dine with President Moon Jae-In and lead the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympic games.
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Trump will address the National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday, February 8.
- The Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, start on Friday, February 9.
Monday, February 5, 2018
HOUSE:
Committee on Rules | Hearing: H.R. 4771Small Bank Holding Company Relief Act of 2018 on Financial Services; H.R. 1153Mortgage Choice Act of 2017; H.R. 772Common Sense Nutrition Disclosure Act of 2017
Committee on House Administration | Markup: CHA Markup: Congressional Accountability Act Reform Measures
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
SENATE:
Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs | Hearing to examine virtual currencies, focusing on the oversight role of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Foreign Relations |Hearing to examine the Administration's South Asia strategy on Afghanistan.
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions |Hearing to examine reauthorizing the Higher Education Act, focusing on improving college affordability.
Judiciary | Hearing to examine beneficial ownership, focusing on fighting illicit international financial networks through transparency.
Armed Services | To receive a closed briefing on the National Defense Strategy.
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Subcommittee on Federal Spending Oversight and Emergency Management | Hearing to examine the cost to taxpayers of spending uncertainty caused by governing through continuing resolutions, giant omnibus spending bills, and shutdown crises.
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: Subcommittee on Primary Health and Retirement Security | Hearings to examine the "Gig Economy" and the future of retirement savings.
Commerce, Science, and Transportation: Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety, Insurance, and Data Security | Hearings to examine data security and bug bounty programs, focusing on lessons learned from the Uber breach and security researchers.
HOUSE:
Committee on Agriculture | Hearing: The State of the Rural Economy
Committee on Armed Services | Hearing: The National Defense Strategy and the Nuclear Posture Review
Committee on Energy and Commerce | Subcommittee on Energy Hearing: DOE Modernization: Advancing the Economic and National Security Benefits of Americas Nuclear Infrastructure
Committee on Foreign Affairs | Hearing: U.S. Cyber Diplomacy in an Era of Growing Threats
Committee on Financial Services | Full Committee | Hearing: Hearing entitled “The Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council”
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology | Hearing: In Defense of Scientific Integrity: Examining the IARC Monograph Programme and Glyphosate Review
Committee on Education and the Workforce | Subcommittee on Workforce Protections | Hearing: “Reviewing the Policies and Priorities of the Mine Safety and Health Administration”
Committee on Foreign Affairs | Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific | Hearing: U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Reassessing Priorities Amid Continued Challenges
Committee on Foreign Affairs | Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa | Hearing: Syria: Which Way Forward?
Committee on Natural Resources | Hearing: Subcommittee to Hold Hearing on Tribal Lands Bills
Committee on Armed Services | Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces | Hearing: Addressing Physiological Episodes in Fighter Attack and Training Aircraft
Wednesday, Feb. 07, 2018
SENATE:
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs | Hearings to examine reauthorizing the Department of Homeland Security, focusing on positioning DHS to address new and emerging threats to the Homeland.
Armed Services: Subcommittee on Airland | Hearings to examine Army modernization.
HOUSE:
Committee on Armed Services | Subcommittee on Military Personnel | Hearing: Senior Leader Misconduct: Prevention and Accountability
Thursday, Feb. 08, 2018
SENATE
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions | Hearings to examine the opioid crisis, focusing on the impact on children and families.
SYRIA | SLIDING INTO A STRATEGY?: General Dan Christman writes on the XXX in Syria. Read his latest piece here.
IT'S A MAD, MAD, MAD, MAD WORLD: The global scene is more confusing and jumbled now than we have witnessed in at least half a century. But amidst this bedlam, what are the true geopolitical risks that could impact business investment and operations? General Dan Christman will discuss what he sees as a small group of top risks, and where business leaders need to be vigilant on a broader range of secondary issues. Join us on Friday, February 9th at 10am ET. Dial-in details here.
LEGAL CATALYSTS: FEDERAL COURT CLEARS PHH OF KICKBACK LIABILITY (PHH): As we anticipated, a federal appeals court lifted a $109 million penalty against PHH Corp. in a high profile constitutional case. Read Paul Glenchur's piece here.
RIDING OPEC’s COATTAILS | U.S. Production Rises Past 10 M B/D in November: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes U.S. crude production surpasses Saudi Arabia production last year. Also, U.S. weekly crude stocks increased last week by 7 million barrels. Read his piece here.
Watch a replay of this special Real Conversation with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and legendary investor Mario Gabelli. Mario discusses his three top stock ideas for 2018 with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Following this deep-dive discussion, Keith and Mario take viewer questions. Click here to view.
- Speaker Paul Ryan is expected to bring up another short-term funding bill for a vote as soon as Tuesday. The current continuing resolution is slated to expire on February 8, and the new stopgap measure would fund the government through March 22. Leaders of both parties continue to grapple with a number of big ticket items: defense spending, domestic spending levels, an immigration deal – and soon raising the debt ceiling. The deadline for Congress to raise the debt ceiling before the United States exhausts its borrowing authority will come during the first half of March, the Congressional Budget Office
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