“Put in the effort or someone else will.”
-Someone
I’m not sure whose quote that is but I’m happy to credit someone else for it. On that score, one of the establishment’s super-smart-and-elite central bankers, Mario Draghi, chirped US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, yesterday:
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“The exchange rate has moved in part because of endogenous reasons… but not by the ECB, but by someone else. This someone else’s communication doesn’t comply with the agreed terms of references.” |
Mnuchin, what is wrong with you, bro? Don’t you get central market planning protocol? You seriously have to get with the anti-gravity-bending program before Trump realizes that you don’t know how to make the ivory tower of econ great again.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
Maybe Mario had a little side-bar with Trump because the big man circumvented tweeting and went right up the middle on the USD suggesting that it’s going to get “stronger and stronger”…
Even though it’s only gotten weaker and weaker since the initial months of his Presidency.
Oh the damn details, I know. Let’s get on with our day and dig into some Q417 Earnings Season update data:
- SP500: 127 companies have reported aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +11.2%
- NASDAQ: 25 companies have reported aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +36.8%
- RUSSELL: 236 companies have reported aggregate year-over-year EPS growth of +22.1%
All good on that front. And no 2016-2017 “this is the top” (on valuation) bear was using the right EPS number when they were calling the US stock market too “expensive.” Minor detail.
If they studied history though, they’d realize that when both the GDP and US corporate profit cycles are #accelerating, “expensive” gets more expensive. I guess they’ll have to wait for the next cycle to apply the learnings of the last.
On the GDP front, it’s a big day @Hedgeye as we’ll see the river card on what is the summary of what was white-hot-sequential-rate-of-change US economic data in the 4th quarter. Stay tuned for a full break-down of that report.
On the PRICE, VOLUME, and VOLATILITY front the following major macro market leading indicators are still signaling Bullish TREND with the following @Hedgeye Risk Ranges:
- UST 2yr Yield 1.99-2.11% (bullish)
- UST 10yr Yield 2.53-2.69% (bullish)
- SP-2860 (bullish)
- RUSSELL 1 (bullish)
- NASDAQ 7 (bullish)
- Biotech (IBB) 113-119 (bullish)
- Oil & Gas Stocks (XOP) 38.38-40.25 (bullish)
- Nikkei 232 (bullish)
- DAX 13148-13598 (bullish)
- EUR/USD 1.21-1.24 (bullish)
- YEN 108.75-111.44 (bullish)
- GBP/USD 1.37-1.42 (bullish)
- Oil (WTI) 62.93-65.90 (bullish)
- Natural Gas 2.99-3.58 (bullish)
- Gold 1 (bullish)
- Copper 3.13-3.27 (bullish)
- AMZN 1 (bullish)
- FB 177-192 (bullish)
- GOOGL 1116-1192 (bullish)
- NFLX 235-273 (bullish)
Including short Treasuries, imagine the guy or gal running your money had all of those positions on in size… with leverage?
They could charge a lot more than 2 & 20 for that Top 20. But they might not “comply with the agreed terms of reference” on all the “risks” associated with buying the damn dips. Again, #details.
I’m more of a knucklehead I guess. I bought the damn dip again in Real-Time Alerts (RTA) yesterday. While I like my analyst’s (Jay Van Sciver) short Tesla (TSLA) idea, my @Hedgeye Risk Range signaling #process suggested I issue a cover signal on red, so I did.
I also got all wild and crazy and went skinny dipping for some more US Tech exposure via my other analyst’s (Ami Joseph) long Corning (GLW) idea. The Nasdaq was down for the 2nd day in a row and while it wasn’t signaling immediate-term #oversold, GLW was.
The way I still see it is that when the market gives us opportunities, we better be quick to put in the buy/cover orders, or someone else will.
Best of luck out there today,
KM
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
