Our message is simple and clear—stay away from shares of home security firm ADT (ADT).

During a recent institutional conference call, Hedgeye Technology analyst Ami Joseph explains why investors in home security firm ADT  “should be selling on this IPO,” which debuted on Friday January 19th.

“This thing is going to end very badly,” he explains in the video above, filed on January 16th.

“This is a real survey. 60% of burglars surveyed say if a home has an ADT sign outside, they’re less likely to go in… So if you’re a consumer, just put an ADT sign out front and you don’t have to pay $50 a month. You certainly don’t have to go into the market and buy a stock that’s 30X cashflow.”

It’s not a promising sign that large investors like Koch Industries are heading for the exits. ADT is using proceeds from its IPO to redeem Koch Industries’ preferred shares.

Bottom line?

“You should be selling on this IPO,” Joseph says. For the record, ADT shares are already down over -6% since it started trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Watch the video above for more reasons to stay away from ADT.

Best Idea Short | ADT: ‘This Thing is Going to End Very Badly’  - investing ideas