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We’ve had our EYE on the run-up of Greece CDS prices over the last weeks. As the chart below depicts, it’s interesting to note that once CDS prices of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers broke above the 300 bps level, the end came shortly thereafter. While we’re not explicitly calling for a Greek sovereign default nor a correlation between CDS prices and sovereign default, risk in Greece is heightening. Could the 300 line also govern a Greek breakout? History has a way of repeating itself. Stay tuned.

Matthew Hedrick


Greek CDS: Is 300 Bps a Prescription for Pain? - GR