The Senate Budget Committee passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, paving the way for the tax reform package to hit the floor of the Senate tomorrow. No substantive changes have been made to the underlying legislation. Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Bob Corker (R-TN) both voted for the package in the Budget Committee after expressing concerns over the past few weeks. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is expected to call the vote tomorrow, beginning “vote-a-rama” with hundreds of amendments thrown into the ring. The Senate will debate for 20 hours and expects to hold the final vote Friday. If all goes according to plan, the Senate will cast a final vote on Friday and go to a Conference Committee with the House next week. If the Chambers cannot reconcile differences in the bill (or if the Senate hits a snag this week) before recess begins on December 15/16, word is they may stay until Christmas (December 22/23) to complete their work.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Finance Chair Orrin Hatch (R-UT) have been busy modifying their draft legislation to secure the votes of a number of wavering Republicans. Our sense again is that we’re going to see a fair share of hiccups, indigestion, and heartburn this week, but McConnell will ultimately prevail. It won’t be as pretty as the House, but to paraphrase what we’re hearing over and over again from Senators and staff is that everyone wants to vote for a tax package and get to yes - and that is half the battle.
Provisions to watch during vote-a-rama:
- Matching the House’s SALT provision allowing $10K in property deductions
- Reforming/retooling the pass-through provisions
- Eliminating a corporate SALT deduction
- Adding a “trigger mechanism” essentially reversing some of the cuts if the economic growth assumed does not materialize
- Modifying political contributions from churches
- Modifying infrastructure funding tools
- Adding Obamacare stabilization measures
- Modifying or revoking Obamacare individual mandate elimination provision
Below, please find a comparison of the major provisions in the House and Senate bills:
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JT Taylor
Managing Director
Macro Policy
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@HedgeyeDC
Emily Evans
Managing Director
Health Policy
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@HedgeyeEEvans
