Tomorrow, November 16th at 12pm ET please join Keith McCullough of the Macro team, JT Taylor of the Macro Policy team, and Emily Evans of the Health Policy team for our latest update call on Macro Tax Reform.
CLICK HERE to access the livestream presentation and associated slides (they will become available shortly prior to the start of the presentation, refresh this link for access).
Key Themes
- Follow the Money | With both the House and Senate proposing to enact sweeping changes to the tax code and not just mere tax cuts, there will undoubtedly be winners and losers across the various sectors of the economy. We’ll analyze the key provisions and assumptions with respect to their likely impact on the domestic economy – from consumer spending, to the budget deficit, to productivity and growth – and ultimately how said reforms might influence the dollar and interest rates.
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House of Blues? | The real estate related provisions in both the House and Senate tax reform proposals are likely to squeeze the housing market from both ends. The lower MID cap, full or partial repeal of SALT deductibility, the change in the exclusion of sale provision and the grandfathering of existing loans are, collectively, likely to pressure home values, dampen demand and further constrain supply at the middle-to-high end. At the low end, the lower corporate tax rate and elimination of private activity bonds will significantly curtail a key funding mechanism for affordable housing. We’ll detail the key provisions and the high probability implications for domestic housing.
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Repatriation | Major corporate tax overhaul on foreign earnings is a key part of both the House and Senate plan. Each proposal is aligned with regard to territorial system and a two-tiered repatriation rate. Although there are some differences to iron out, both sides are aligned on the need to incentivize repatriation of profits and transfer of key intangible assets back home. A quick look at the massive amount of cash stashed abroad opens up a wide variety of scenarios, namely shareholder return of capital and currency-centric drivers. We will take a quantitatively driven tour across a number of potential scenarios.
Dial-in Details
- Toll Free:
- Toll:
- UK: 0
- Confirmation Number: 13673196
As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to . Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the call shortly after it concludes.
Kind regards,
-The Hedgeye Macro Team
