Individual discussions with very senior military officers who have just returned from travel to the Republic of Korea in advance of the President's trip there this Tuesday currently assess the probability of war on the Korean peninsula at 7 on a 10 scale. Those same officers pegged the probability at 4 just three years ago.
Partly because of the coincidence of the Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition (ADEX) Oct 15-20 and partly in direct preparation for Tuesday's POTUS visit, most of the US' relevant senior active duty and retired military officers have trekked to South Korea over the last two-three weeks and are now providing remarkably similar assessments of the state of affairs there.
Takeaways:
- Within three months, POTUS will face a clear decision on moving into Phase I of conflict operations (deterrence) in Korea. US officials feel that the next 6 to 12 weeks will determine with great clarity if China is serious about supporting US sanctions. At that time POTUS will be faced with a decision to increase the current level of US military activity, defined as shaping or Phase 0, to deterrence or Phase 1 in US military doctrine. US doctrine defines Deterrence activities as "preparatory actions that indicate resolve to commit resources and respond to the situation." (Phases 2-5 = seize the initiative, dominate, stabilize, enable civil authorities).
- Unsurprisingly, the US military apparatus is doing its job to be prepared to fulfill any future taskings in the theater. There are currently three carrier battle groups in the vicinity of Korea, a very unusual event. Services are conducting senior level "rock drills" that familiarize leaders with current plans and identify necessary changes to current levels of readiness. This includes filling weapons stocks and inventorying units.
- Senior South Korean leaders are concerned that President Trump will defend American interests on the Korean peninsula right down to the last South Korean. Since war broke out in 1950, the US has focused on defending South Korea against North Korea and its main ally China, as this was in the long term indirect interests of the United States. With the rapidly developing North Korean nuclear capability to directly threaten the US homeland, senior ROK officials are concerned that the President is more cynical about South Korean interests and potential war costs when compared to the direct threat to the US.
- In the face of a more self-centered US policy, there is concern that South Korea is beginning to seriously consider China as a potentially better long term strategic partner than the US. Recent Chinese endorsement of South Korean President Moon's pledge not to seek nuclear weapons and work with South Korea toward a denuclearized peninsula is telling. Politically and militarily, China and ROK view a nuclear North Korea similarly. Economically, there is no question on which side the South Korean bread is buttered: annual South Korean trade with China is approximately double the trade with the US (annual exports to China are $124B vs. $66B to the US, while imports from China are $94B vs. $42B from the US).
LtGen Gardner is a former Director for Operations, J-3 at US Pacific Command.
