RELIEF, RECOVERY, REQUEST: On the back of President Trump’s request for $29 billion in disaster relief, Puerto Rico’s Governor Ricardo Rossello is asking Congress for an additional $1.4 billion from various agencies and loan programs. The $29 billion is set to help Florida, Texas, and Puerto Rico after one of the most historically devastating hurricane seasons as well as send disaster funding for the fires in the west. Members of Congress with ties to Puerto Rico feel it their responsibility to represent the territory at a federal level and are lobbying their friends in Congress for immediate relief, “this will become his Katrina,” if nothing is done. 85% of the territory is still without power and the temporary lift of the Jones Act is now over.
PAID FOR BY MEXICO?: The House is expected to pass the Border Security for America Act that includes $10 billion in border wall security. House Democrats believe this bill is being set up as a bargaining chip for DACA legislation, knowing that the Act is very unlikely to pass the Senate. President Trump is still hell-bent on building the wall - declaring it number one on his immigration wish list. Democrats will do everything they can to prevent the wall from being built - which will likely lead to their deal on DACA falling through.
NEW POWER PLAN: The Trump Administration has been longing to end the war on coal and has been following up on promises made during his campaign to bring back the dying industry since January 20, 2017. A good chunk of the first major Executive Orders the president signed was to protect coal workers and ease regulations. So, it comes as no surprise that EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is moving forward with his plan to repeal the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The CPP rule limits carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants. He can do so without the help of Congress, but would be widely criticized the way former President Obama was for his power overreach in enacting the rule. What he can’t do - raise the price of natural gas which has become a significantly cheaper input for electric generation and has been surpassing the use of coal regardless of federal intervention.
REPUBLICAN RUMBLE: It is no secret that the president likes to pick fights with his own. As he weighs the decision to pull out of the Iran deal he has insulted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. He is also in a public feud with retiring Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) who said every day is a game of trying to contain the president at the White House and that he could lead the country into World War IIl. While Trump needs his A team for tax reform - he is clearly frustrated with their lack of legislative victories, once again turning to the Democrats. Trump boasted about reaching out to Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to strike a temporary deal to stabilize insurance markets while they wait for Republicans to repeal and replace Obamacare - an unlikely solution from an unlikely pair that seems, somehow, slightly more likely than Republicans getting health reform done.
TRUDEAU TALKS: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing for his meeting with President Trump and Congressional leaders ahead of the fourth round of NAFTA talks. The two leaders are ideologically different - Trudeau campaigned on increasing open trade, Trump did the opposite. There are concerns that the U.S. requests may hamper negotiations and cause the deal to collapse altogether. Trudeau wants to make sure that does not happen, he will also be going to Mexico immediately after and is expected to discuss the reality of the border wall.
EVENT: PANEL: TRUMP TO DE-CERTIFY IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that the White House plans a speech on October 12th to announce the U.S. pulling out of the Iran deal - a catalyst for U.S. sanctions on one million barrels per day of Iranian crude. RSVP for a special panel discussion on the U.S. pullout of the Iran nuclear deal Wednesday, October 11th at 3:00PM. We also hosted a flash call - listen to the replay here.
HEDGEYE ENERGY CONFERENCE: DEPUTY ENERGY SECRETARY AND FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT HEADLINE OCTOBER 11 IN NEW YORK CITY: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a Hedgeye energy conference in New York City. Topics include regulating pipelines, grid reliability and energy infrastructure in the Trump Administration - as well as an OPEC meeting preview. Get the event details here.
ARMY TO EMPHASIZE MODERNIZATION OVER GROWTH; ANNOUNCES SIX PRIORITIES: Our Senior Defense Analyst Emo Gardner writes that Army leadership streamlines its modernization bureaucracy; intends to trade size for modernity and lethality. Read the full piece here.
ATTACKING NET NEUTRALITY IN THE SUPREME COURT (CMCSA, CHTR, T, VZ, CTL, S, TMUS): Our Senior Telecom Analyst Paul Glenchur writes - a Supreme Court review of Obama era net neutrality rules could kill off common carrier broadband regulation even if Democrats win in 2020. Read the full piece here.
#ACA2.0 | HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT +2.0% IN SEPTEMBER: Our Senior Health Analyst Emily Evans writes - health care and hospital employment continue their downward trend at +2.0% and +1.6% YoY in September. Read the full piece here.
EFFECTS OF PAMA: NOT AS BAD AS YOU THINK BUT STILL NOT GOOD | RELIEF UNLIKELY: Our Senior Health Analyst Emily Evans writes that reimbursement for the top 25 tests is likely to decline about six percent in 2018; subsequent years are more bleak. Read the full piece here.