DANCE TILL YOU'RE DEAD: There will not be a vote today on an Obamacare repeal and replacement. Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), John McCain (R-AZ), and Susan Collins (R-ME), were vocal in their opposition to the bill and the lack of regular order, while Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) blamed the fast-paced process for the failure. The Cassidy-Graham Amendment had many promising provisions, but did not have the time to go through the committee and subcommittee process digesting and modifying a bill. The CBO score, which became less significant as they changed the text, did not help. As our Senior Health Analyst Emily Evans has repeatedly said, until they change the basis of how CBO counts insured persons - those “23 million more uninsured” headlines will kill repeal efforts. She breaks it down here.
BIX SIX’S BIG DAY: President Trump’s great unveiling of the Big Six’s tax reform plan will be today in Indiana. So far the details that have leaked out:
--lower the corporate rate to 20%;
--reduce the number of individual tax brackets to three with a top rate of 35%;
--double the standard deduction;
--lower the tax rate on smaller, family-owned "pass-through" businesses to 25%;
--set guardrails to prevent wealthy people from using the new "pass-through" rates to benefit themselves personally.
The framework is only meant to serve as a guideline for the appropriate tax writing committees in Congress, leaving them room for plenty of changes. The most important thing to Trump is a lower corporate tax rate paired with consistent individual taxes on the wealthy. House Republicans are also meeting today on tax reform. Read our primer here.
NOT SO STRANGE RESULTS: Anti-establishment candidate Roy Moore (R-AL) has been polling ahead of Senator Luther Strange by a healthy margin. While people are calling this President Trump’s first postelection loss, is Roy Moore that different from him? The same group of anti-swamp Republicans that promised Trump would bring change has been campaigning for Moore and, as more members from this faction of the Republican Party make it to Washington, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s job of rallying Republicans into consensus will become increasingly difficult. And, that may encourage more retirements like Senator Bob Corker’s (R-TN) yesterday - spawning internecine primary fights heading into the 2018 mid-terms. Other things to watch - Miami’s state Senate race flipped from red to blue and New Hampshire’s special election picked a Democrat in a town where Trump won by 23 points.
FAA DELAYED: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is up for reauthorization this week, but hit a wall when long term reauthorization was postponed after Republican leaders couldn’t get support for privatizing Air Traffic Control (ATC) and a subsequent effort to fast track a six-month extension failed to garner a two-thirds majority in the House this week. The fast track was blocked when Republicans tacked on extra hurricane relief funding which House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) lobbied against for its lack of relation to FAA. She wanted them to focus on the other necessary authorizations such as the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Congress will likely take up FAA again later this week in regular order to pass the extension before September 30th.
PUERTO RICO AND ITS U.S. CITIZENS: The destruction in Puerto Rico is both worse than it has ever been and worse than anyone expected. The entire island was destroyed by Hurricane Maria which has left them in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. It’s estimated that only a little over 50% of the population has access to clean water and temperatures are averaging over 90 degrees. President Trump is expected to fly there next Tuesday. He has spoken about sending more money and more resources for relief. But has also addressed their prior bankruptcy - tweeting that the territory must still address their debt to Wall Street - though we think relief and relocation efforts will be the focus for some time. As Federal relief resources are drying up - private companies (Carnival and Royal Caribbean) have stepped in - and commissioned vessels full of supplies to the area.
EVENT: MACROCOSM IN BOSTON TODAY: POLITICS AND PORTFOLIOS: Hedgeye’s exclusive macroeconomic conference will be held today, Wednesday, September 27th at the Langham Hotel in Boston and will focus on how the new political environment will affect the markets. This interactive forum features valuable insight and perspective from some of the world’s smartest minds on the most important economic, political, and market-based developments and risks facing institutional investors. Get the event details here.
EVENT: TELECOM LUNCHEON IN NEW YORK TOMORROW: Our Senior Telecom Analyst Paul Glenchur will be hosting a telecom and media policy luncheon in New York City highlighting the FCC outlook following their meeting.
ENERGY DEPT LAUNCHES PIPELINE PERMIT STUDY WITH EYE TO "MORE, NOT LESS" APPROVALS: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle writes that Secretary Perry raises possible national security consideration to override state permit denials; citing NY’s denial of Constitution Pipeline. Read the full piece here.
EXAS | FEE SCHEDULE INDICATES STABLE REIMBURSEMENT: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans wrote - we remain LONG EXAS in the Hedgeye Health Care Position Monitor. Read the full piece here.
BOMBARDIER DECISION PORTENDS BIG WIN FOR LMT: Our Senior Defense Analyst Emo Gardner wrote U.S. decision to support BA with tariffs on Bombardier will result in Canadian backlash against F/A-18E/F and restart plan to buy 65 F-35As.. Read the full piece here.
EVENT: HEDGEYE GOES TO AUSA OCTOBER 10th: Hedgeye’s Senior Defense Analyst Lt. Gen Emerson “Emo” Gardner is hosting a defense day in DC followed by a reception. Join Emo in a “booth walk” of the largest land warfare exposition in North America. View over 720 of the world’s most important military hardware suppliers escorted by the man former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates called, “my go-to guy on the budget.” By invitation only.
EVENT: DEPUTY ENERGY SECRETARY & FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT HEADLINE OCTOBER 11 HEDGEYE ENERGY CONF (NYC): Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a Hedgeye energy conference in New York City. Topics include regulating pipelines, grid reliability and energy infrastructure in the Trump Administration - as well as an OPEC meeting preview. Get the event details here.
