In the second big Pentagon competition of the summer, the Air Force has awarded LMT and RTN $900M Tech Maturation and Risk Reduction contracts that will lead to the development of the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) weapon. The LRSO is intended to replace the AGM-86B, the nation's nuclear air-launched cruise missile originally produced by BA. The contracts are expected to last 54 months and will lead to a further downselect in March 2022 to a single contractor for Engineering and Manufacturing Development. Total R&D and Procurement are expected to cost about $9B.
The award comes just two days after BA and NOC were selected over LMT for $340M tech maturation contracts leading to the development of an ICBM replacement, which in the long run will be a much larger program (~$85B).
The LRSO will be a supersonic, stealthy and maneuverable replacement for BA's subsonic AGM-86B ALCM. Like the AGM-86B, the LRSO will have a conventional as well as nuclear capability. The AGM-86B will be ~50 years old when finally replaced by the LRSO.
The LRSO is one of the more controversial parts of the massively expensive effort to recapitalize the nation's aging nuclear weapons capability. Experts to include former SecDef Bill Perry see the LRSO capability as destabilizing given its dual (nuclear/conventional) capability and redundant to the B-21 bomber which will carry an upgraded B-61 precision nuclear bomb.
The CBO estimates that the nation will spend $400B over the next ten years on the first two Colombia-class submarines (GD), the B-21 bomber (NOC), ICBM replacement (BA or NOC) and the weapons like the LRSO and B-61 that will go on those platforms. Most of that money will be spent on development. The real costs of these systems will be for procurement which will mostly occur after 2026. SecDef Mattis has ordered a Nuclear Posture Review by early 2019 that is expected to address how the Administration is going to face this challenge.
