As we pass the six-month mark of the Trump Presidency, it's useful to reflect on how the world of global diplomacy, and the globe itself, have changed under President Trump – for better or worse, or if at all.
- Clearly there are areas of continuity on the global scene with which Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama would be familiar: disturbingly, the lure of jihadist ideologies continues unabated; China and North Korea remain the preeminent geo-strategic threats; and cyber-crimes by both state and non-state actors maintain their inexorable growth, undermining U.S. business competiveness and national security at the same time.
- Even U.S.-Russia relations, beset by the “sturm und drang” of numerous investigations, Presidential Tweets, and high-profile resignations, are little changed substantively from the Obama years – at least so far. Congressional constraints on unilateral presidential action have kept Trump on a short diplomatic leash with his friends Sergei Lavrov and Vladimir Putin.
But in other areas – notably in international trade and the Middle East – the Trump Presidency finds itself in the middle of global tectonic shifts, caused – or at least abetted – by the disruptive style of our 45th President.
- On trade, Trump's first major international decision of consequence was to abandon TPP – a business and geo-political mistake. To be sure, some of the useful provisions of TPP are finding their way into the update of NAFTA – areas like environmental and labor protections; and there is a good chance that the NAFTA update will succeed. This mitigates somewhat the Trump “trade damage.” But U.S. leadership in the East Asia region will be AWOL. And in the wake of the TPP decision, large regional or global trade deals beyond TPP, like TTIP (the European analogue to TPP ) and the never-ending “Doha Development Round” of the WTO, already on life-support before the Trump election, have been given fatal body blows.
- In the Middle East, Trump has helped open Sunni family squabbles, adding to the chaos throughout the region despite the military successes against the ISS Caliphate. One of the many downsides: Qatar and even Turkey are sliding closer to Iran, and Iranian influence increases. Russia's long-term role in the region is similarly enhanced as the inexplicable Trump-Putin bromance continues.
There are a few opportunities in the Trump "changing world," however. Top of the list is India. The Indians are feeling the geo-political pressure from China on their northern borders. As our own relationship with the PRC sours over their failure to help with North Korea, the recent U.S.-India summit and the Modi hug with Trump were strategically significant. It's another chapter in the continuing strategic realignment by New Delhi as China frictions intensify. The "One Belt, One Road" PRC infrastructure initiative, bypassing India – a 21st Century “Silk Road” – has focused India's mind. Trump has helped, and in the process, is reinforcing U.S. strategic interests.
And in a perverse way, a “Trump effect” may have helped stall the populist surge in Europe as voter reflected on the disruptive U.S. scene and cast their votes for more centrist candidates – in Austria, The Netherlands, and France; whatever the cause, the health of the “European experiment” called the EU is on the rebound.
But in the end, what has changed most is the absence of principled, predictable American global leadership. The retrenchment began slowly under Obama and has now accelerated. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group calls the result the "G-0" world – i.e., no longer is there a pre-eminent global leader or champion. The point: the global landscape is now increasingly chaotic, not just because of the U.S. withdrawing and letting local "ghosts" re-appear, but because the U.S. is actually aggravating long-standing regional tensions through impulsive, random actions unmoored from any clear strategy. As Trump himself would Tweet in a different context, "Sad!"
