Cheesecake Factory was added to our "Investing Ideas" as a SHORT on May 25. It's down -9.9% since then. Below is an excerpt from our original Stock Report on the company which lays out our thesis. Top of the list, CAKE traffic has declined for 17 of the last 18 quarters.
With ~90% of the Cheesecake Factory locations located in or in close proximity to shopping malls, CAKE has been forced to deal with historically low traffic at America’s malls, in addition to the overall downturn in the restaurants space.
Our view is that CAKE is in a secular decline, and one look at CAKE’s traffic trends since 1Q12, and it is clear where this concept is headed. With 1Q17 traffic at -2.3%, and -1.4% on a two-year average basis, the decelerating in the business is poised to continue, as estimates have two-year average traffic further decelerating to -1.8% in 2Q17.
