America's present need is not heroics but healing; not nostrums but normalcy; not revolution but restoration.
-Warren G Harding
IMPEACHMENT HYSTERIA: The chaos of the last week has led to talk of a Trump impeachment by Democrats and some Republicans. While you can’t rule out the possibility that impeachment comes into play, we think that narrative is premature and overplayed. Should it reach a tipping point, President Trump would certainly resign leaving the no-nonsense Veep Mike Pence in the Oval. Republican leadership will look towards Pence with loving eyes knowing that he would push their agenda forward as president.
The subpoena of the Comey memo is damaging, but Republican’s aren’t going to throw Trump overboard. They have a larger agenda and will do their best to keep their heads down and focus on executing unless more damaging information is revealed. Their challenge is that they just can’t count on the environment improving. Following the appointment of former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel, Democrat (and Republican) calls for impeachment will likely die down - for now - giving Trump an opportunity to depart for his overseas trip with a little breathing room unless he introduces another storyline into the mix. Nonetheless, Republicans will have to get used to operating with this sub-narrative of controversy continuing unabated. What could change: Comey's memo for the record could be the tip of the iceberg - and at this point only he knows.
As it stands now though the Republican agenda is still moving forward and hasn’t been entirely impacted by the scandals: the Senate is still meeting to make progress on health care, the Ways and Means Committee begins hearings on tax reform next week, and the House is looking to vote on the CHOICE Act as soon as next week. With their agenda still moving forward, Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are likely to continue to back the president. We see that changing if Republican talk of impeachment grows, handicapping the White House and bringing the Republican agenda to a grinding halt.
WHAT’S THE SCORE?: Senate Republicans have already started their modification process on the House health care bill. Most Republicans agree that the Senate version will need to beef up subsidies for lower-income and older people compared to what passed the House. Senator John Thune is working on a proposal that would make the tax credits larger, tying them to income while also giving older people more support. Thune has been working on this proposal since March, but wants to hold off on moving forward until the CBO issues its scorecard next week.
REGULATORY RENEGADE: Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who is up for reelection in a Trump state in 2018, has broken with party ranks to work with Republicans on regulatory reform. Heitkamp is working with Senator Rob Portman on a proposal to reform the rulemaking process and force federal agencies to choose the most cost-effective ways to regulate. The Regulatory Accountability Act will create new hurdles for regulators before issuing major rules that are estimated to cost the economy $1 million or more. On top of cost benefit analyses, agencies would have to hold trial-like hearings with impacted parties and review major rules at least once every ten years. Heitkamp also has the backing of Democrat Joe Manchin and even Senator Tom Carper, who is anti-regulatory reform and has signaled that he could support parts of the bill.
REPLAY/RECAP OF OPEC PREVIEW CONFERENCE CALL: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle held a call with the former OPEC President and Former Algerian Energy Minister last week. You can read a summary of the call here.
INDEPENDENT DOJ INVESTIGATIONS AND THE AT&T-TIME WARNER DEAL: Fallout from the firing of FBI Director Comey reinforces our view that an independent DOJ review of the transaction should lead to approval. You can read the full piece here.
