In the time of darkest defeat, victory may be nearest.
-William McKinley
THAT WAS EASY: Big day in Washington, DC yesterday. The Senate passed the $1.1 trillion funding bill averting a shutdown and funding the government through September 30 and it only took seven months to get there. The easy part is over. The government is now funded through the end of September, and getting a deal for FY18 will undoubtedly be much tougher. President Trump is itching for a fight in September going as far to threaten that the government needs a shutdown to fix Washington. Democrats celebrated this deal as a victory in the time of Trump and Republican rule, and Trump will push to win the next one which will include fighting for his border wall and defunding Planned Parenthood - just to mention a few non-controversial issues. The 2018 spending bill will also be heavily influenced by the battle to raise the debt ceiling which will also play out around the same time.
REPEAL, REPLACE, REPEAT: They say you don’t hold a vote in Congress until you have the ayes and It was unclear late Wednesday whether Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy had enough votes, but they managed to pull it off with a little wiggle room. Now it heads to the skeptical Senate where Republicans can only afford two defections and major changes are certain. Many Senators on the fence view the Medicaid rollback as the biggest obstacle, while Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz want a bill that only repeals the ACA. While staying in the background during the House debate, Governors have been working behind the scenes with the Senate on the Medicaid rollback, and when Republicans go to conference, Republicans will have to find a way to help the Governors without hurting the states who didn’t take up the expansion. There is talk of the Senate completing something by the July 4 recess - just in time for the real fireworks to begin.
SPOILED FOR CHOICE: We hosted a flash call yesterday on Dodd Frank reform as soon as the Choice Act was voted out of the House Financial Services Committee. With passage in the House very likely, the Choice Act faces many challenges over in the Senate. Without the support of eight Senate Democrats, key elements of Choice including the repeal of the Durbin Amendment and Volcker Rule are highly unlikely - as well as limits imposed on the CFPB as the controversial bureau is slated to go from powerful watchdog to a policing agency that will enforce already existing consumer protection laws. Our speaker did point out that bipartisan efforts by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo could ultimately yield a number of viable changes to the soon-to-be seven-year-old Dodd Frank law - so he’s the one to watch in the coming months. You can find the replay here.
FRENCH FINALE: The final leg of the French election is upon us and the latest polls show Neo-centrist Emmanuel Macron as the heavy leader going into Sunday's election over far-right National Front Candidate Marine Le Pen. During a debate earlier in the week Le Pen tried her hardest to make Macron look as unpresidential as possible and to paint him as more of the same. Macron though kept his cool and managed to almost stump Le Pen on her plans take France out of the EU. As we’ve mentioned before, the Western Nationalist movement has risen high coming into this election on the heels of Brexit and Trump, and although Macron is also an outsider candidate, a victory by him will slow down the nationalistic sentiment for now.
BY POPULAR DEMAND: SUMMARY TABLE OF AHCA PROVISIONS WITH RECENT PROPOSED & APPROVED AMENDMENTS: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans provides a table of AHCA provisions that includes the recently approved amendments. You can find it here.
CONFERENCE CALL NEXT WEEK: OPEC MEETING PREVIEW WITH FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT AND ALGERIAN OIL MINISTER: Our Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a call previewing the OPEC meeting next week. You can find the invite here.
