In politics the middle way is none at all.
-John Adams
ON TO THE NEXT 1360 DAYS...:The uncertainty over the past month over funding the government still looms, but without most of the drama of past episodes as Congress is expected to pass a one-week stopgap bill today to fund the government. The extension prevents an immediate government shutdown and allows Republican and Democratic leaders to continue to negotiate a broader agreement that is expected to come together next week or even the following. But we’ve learned something in the past 99 days and that’s to expect the unexpected. After the White House dropped its request for border wall funding and agreed to continue to fund ACA insurance payments, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi signaled that she could back the bill; enter the highly-anticipated and oft-delayed vote on the AHCA and a few goading tweets by President Trump. While Republicans decide when to vote on the AHCA (hint, not today), House Democrats have reignited their calls for a shutdown if the vote takes place, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer downplaying the threat. Our view is that the focus returns to keeping the government open next week with the hype of Trump’s 100-day mark tomorrow and the pressure to produce legislative trophies behind us. That is, until the 200-day mark rears its ugly head.
COOLING OFF THE TEA: As House Republicans celebrated a small victory by getting the 30 or so Freedom Caucus members on board the health plan, Senate Republicans remain unconvinced that the solution is workable on their side of dome. The House bill lurched to the right, making it more difficult - not less - for the bill to pass the more moderate Senate. Unfortunately for House Republicans though is that even conservative Senators like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz don’t support the bill in its current form. Should the House pass the bill in the coming weeks, we maintain that it has a long, narrow and winding road through the Senate.
FIRST STEPS FOR CHOICE 2.0:The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing on Chairman Jeb Hensarling’s (R-TX) proposed Dodd-Frank overhaul, the Financial CHOICE Act 2.0. As expected, the hearing was marked by partisan clashes, as Democrats argued for additional hearings on the measure, and Republicans contended the bill’s much-debated provisions would spur economic growth and financial stability. The hearing covered a myriad of issues from the Durbin Amendment to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB); the Department of Labor (DOL) Fiduciary Rule and the Volcker Rule and much more. Stay tuned for a call next week on our outlook for the measure as the legislation moves to the next stage in committee process.
With the White House engaged in the tax reform debate this week, we illustrate current tax policy in comparison to the Trump and Ryan proposals:
THE DARK RED CLOUD: With all the talk of tax and spending this week, we leave you with a topic that no one appears to be talking about - our nation’s debt calamity. We will hit the debt ceiling later this fall and the chart below shows the mounting debt amassed over the last five presidents:
CMS RELEASES PAYMENT UPDATES FOR HOSPICE, IRF AND SNF - NEW PAYMENT SYSTEM FOR SNF? Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes payment updates a non-event but Advanced Notice on proposed changes to SNF PPS is news and paves way for PAC PPS. You can find the full piece here.
