It's been 3 weeks since we rolled out our #Retail5.0 framework. To say there have been massive areas of interest as well as severe pushback on certain parts of our thesis would be an understatement.
We're hosting a call tomorrow, Tuesday, April 25th at 1pm to review the hot buttons in from the dozens of meetings and calls we've had in three weeks.
Call Details:
Toll Free:
Toll:
UK: 0
Confirmation Number: 13659710
Video/Replay Link: CLICK HERE
Key Areas of Interest
- Whether e-com can actually get to 34% of sales vs 12% today. I'll debate this any day, and will quantify as such. People are arguing 'low-20s' but that's based on what's in front of them today. People need to look at new concepts that will be there tomorrow to sell in new categories.
- Winners vs Losers. You can drive a truck through the debate on who wins and who loses. The brush Wall Street artists are painting with is too wide. They're not Bullish enough on the Winners, and not Bearish enough on the losers. The key is that both exist in every space...Brands, Retailers, Asian Manufacturing, US Manufacturing, e-comm providers, and REITs.
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Best IPOs in two cycles? On the winners and losers, one thing that came to my mind in the context of our discussions is that maybe of the winners 5-years out are simply not public yet. Once we get past the J Jill's and Canada Goose's of the world, could we actually see a wave of IPOs that are actually really good deals?
- On the REIT side, the interesting thing to me is that Retail Analysts are trying to be REIT analysts, and REIT analysts are trying to be retail analysts. I'm going to be a little (lot) self serving here, but I think we have the tools to drill down the specific winners and losers by specific location and consumer preference.
- Here's another new thought...I increasingly think that the best shorts will be good brands that are increasing cash flow via lower SG&A (that's obvious) but more importantly, lower capex. CFOs are increasingly out there saying that Capex is up 10% -- or maybe 1% of sales -- to 'grow e-commerce'. Do you know what our kids will call e-commerce? They'll call it commerce. Or simply put, shopping. The question that needs to be asked to EVERY CEO/CFO is why we're not in an environment where capex needs to double over a multi-year period. If companies can't answer that question, then they should be out there searching for a clue.
We'll also go over added insight on ...
- BKs vs Bagels
- Transformational deals -- more pushback there than I thot.
- Square footage math, and the pushback we're getting on out view that implied square footage will double over 8 years and will disrupt the supply/demand balance more than any other time in our lives.
- I think strip malls are dead. Others think regional malls are dead. I think those peeps will be wrong. But I'll present both sides of the debate.
Check out the link to our last deck below. If you think any other points need clarification -- or simply a healthy debate -- then shoot questions my way. I'll address them (anonomously).
Retail 5.0 Black Book Link: CLICK HERE
