We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security.
-Dwight Eisenhower
TAXING SITUATION: President Trump has started rewriting his tax plan aimed at better helping the people who put him over the top in the election. The latest iteration has Trump proposing to cut taxes to help rural and industrialized parts of the country where a swath of his major supporters reside. The president has not signed off on Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady’s proposal which would include the controversial border adjustment tax. There is also a third plan circulating on the Hill that would cut the corporate tax rate while also getting rid of a lot of the payroll tax. With Trump starting over and with multiple ideas/plans under consideration on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, the White House is coming around to the fact that the Treasury Secretary’s goal of having it done by the August Congressional recess is looking even more bleak.
STEELING BACK: On the heels of President Trump’s summit with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, his Administration is working on an executive order that will investigate the extent to which unfair dumping and subsidization of certain imports adds to the U.S. trade deficit. If the results of the investigation show a negative impact on the deficit, Trump could levy more tariffs on imported goods. The order will mainly target the steel and aluminum import sectors and household goods. If the investigation results in an import duty, it could lead to more expensive consumer goods and potentially impact the stocks of U.S. companies who rely on cheap foreign steel. The manufacturing sector may likely benefit from the duty as it makes the prices from foreign competition more competitive.
SPECIAL ELECTION CONNECTION: The race for HHS Secretary Tom Price’s seat in the sixth district of Georgia is heating up with just one week to go. This will be the first indicator of how Trump’s policies are going over in a district that Price won by over 20 points. Democrat Jon Osoff is currently leading the field which is divided among five Democrats and 11 Republicans. Osoff would need to win over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff against a Republican in June. Both parties have invested heavily in the race as Democrats view this as a potential pick up with Trump winning the district by one and a half points, while Republicans are nervous that losing the seat could be an omen for next years midterms. All eyes will also be on the fourth district of Kansas today for another special election for the seat to replace Trump’s newly-appointed CIA Director Mike Pompeo. The race has been tightening and is closer than expected - with Trump, Veep Mike Pence, Speaker Paul Ryan and others weighing in at the last minute, but Republican’s should hold nonetheless given the Sunflower State’s deep red roots and Trump's healthy 30-point win in the district.
At a time where Capitol Hill is more divided than ever, Trump’s decision to strike Syria has generally received bipartisan support in the Senate with Senators rallying around the president’s response to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons. Below is a chart showing the Senate’s current sentiment:
WHILE CONGRESS FIDDLES, FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY GRINDS ON; MEDICARE PAYMENT UPDATES AT WHITE HOUSE: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes Spring ritual of Medicare payment updates begins with several rules sent to White House; policy messages offer most interest. You can find the full analysis here.
COMCAST MOBILE AND WIRELESS CONSOLIDATION: Our Senior Telecom and Media Policy Analyst Paul Glenchur writes Comcast mobile probably lacks the competitive impact that could ease approval of a Sprint/T-Mobile deal, but it deserves monitoring. You can find the full piece here.
