The essence of a free government consists in an effectual control of rivalries.
- John Adams
TURNING TO TRADE: The White House is preparing an executive order that will review all U.S. trade deals and then seek to negotiate better terms. The number one priority of the order will call for NAFTA to be renegotiated, but will also include an examination of 14 agreements including regional deals as well as bilateral deals with countries across Asia, South America, the Middle East and Australia. This new order could win him support of progressive Democrats on the Hill who have pushed Trump to suspend and negotiate the procurement provisions of trade deals - and enables him to move forward on a major campaign promise. Even the patience of Rust Belt voters has its limits.
FREEDOM CAUCUS FOILS: Trump headed to the Hill yesterday to try and improve the chances of the AHCA passing the House on Thursday. Trump took a somber tone while addressing Republican members by talking about primary challengers and potentially losing the House in 2018 if the bill doesn’t get passed. He singled out the Freedom Caucus and its Chair Mark Meadows (in a cheeky way), who won his district by over 30 points, who has yet to offer his backing for the bill. The threats, however, don't seem to be phasing them as many members of the ultra conservative group still oppose the bill in its current form.
OUT OF SIGHT, NOT OUT OF MIND: While infrastructure continues to take a back seat to healthcare and tax reform, House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster refuses to give up. Shuster is preparing legislation to reauthorize the FAA whose authority expires at the end of September and wants to use this as the vehicle for Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure “spend.” As it is a “must-pass” bill Shuster thinks many a package to rebuild roads, bridges, and airports can be folded into the measure. On top of infrastructure, Trump’s goal to privatize air traffic control could also move forward within this bill.
DENTING THE DEFICIT: Speaker Ryan’s big push for the AHCA has revolved around the fact that it decreases the federal deficit over ten years. Below is a chart that compares the deficit under the ACA and AHCA.
A QUICK PRIMER ON FEDERAL MEDICAID PER CAPITA CALCULATIONS IN AHCA: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes the starting point for funding will be status quo but growth curve will flatten under CPI-U Medical Care inflator. Big change for some states. You can read the full piece here.
AND, ANOTHER QUICK AHCA PRIMER - MEDICAID BLOCK GRANTS TO STATES: Emily Evans also writes details are sketchy but would apply to non-expansion adults and children; inflates on CPI w/no adjustment for enrollment growth. You can read the full piece here.
TURNING EAST: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson made the tough decision of choosing to stay in country the first weekend of April when Chinese President Xi Jingping makes his first official visit under the Trump presidency. This visit, though, coincides with the first NATO foreign ministers meeting of the new Administration taking place in Brussels. While the pivot east is important particularly as President Trump and China got off to a rocky start, the skipping of the NATO meeting, where the U.S. plays an oversized role, has raised some eyebrows, particularly as Tillerson heads to Russia later in the month.
