President Trump set official Washington back on its heels last week with a very disciplined address to a joint session of the Congress. He focused on policy and provided a clear idea of where he wants to take the country in his first year as president.
While this was not a set of specific policy proposals, it showed the direction he supports for growth, reform and revitalizing the United States economy.
Starting a new Twitter storm over the weekend has diverted the media and some Congress watchers, but not the leaders of Congress. Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy along with their committee chairmen are planning to roll out and mark-up their health care reconciliation legislation this week and next. They are scheduled to move the process forward so that the Senate will be able to take up the bill before it considers the nomination of Judge Gorsuch prior to the Easter/Passover recess in April.
Admittedly, everything has to fall into place for this to happen. But work is being done to have the House vote in time for the Senate to take up reconciliation before they leave for the April recess.
Trent Lott, both a House and Senate Whip, used to say, "sometimes you have to take the vote to get the votes." That will probably be the situation that the House leadership faces in the next two weeks when they go to the floor for a vote on the FY17 Reconciliation legislation.
The Senate will take up the House passed FY17 Reconciliation bill. It will be subject to a careful review by the Senate Parliamentarian. Despite an effort by the House to include only items which can stand the Byrd rule test in the Senate, in all likelihood the Reconciliation bill that passes the Senate will have to go back to the House for final passage before it moves to the President for signature. The schedule planned right now will result in a reconciliation bill signed into law in the first 100 days.
How will the House get 216 votes to pass the bill? One of the weapons they will use is the new Director of the OMB. As a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, Director Mulvaney has more influence with the Members of both the Freedom Caucus and the Republican Study Committee than any other person in the Trump Administration and the House Leadership.
Also the Congress and the White House are working with a group of governors to find a path that will satisfy both those states who accepted additional Medicaid coverage and those who did not. It won't make anyone completely happy, but it will allow both groups of states to move forward and handle their constituents fairly.
A most significant unresolved problem is the issue of "Hyde" protections in the legislation. There is strong support for these pro-life protections in both the House and the Senate, but the language could well be subject to the Byrd restrictions on reconciliation legislation. This is a thorny issue that could cause a problem when the Senate bill is returned to the House.
Two significant issues need to be dealt with for the united Republican government to have a successful first 100 days: the passage of FY17 Reconciliation which will accomplish repeal of the ACA and the formation of a new patient/doctor based system and the confirmation of Judge Gorsuch to the Supreme Court of the United States.
David Hoppe most recently served as Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan. On January 2, 2017 Mr. Hoppe left his post in the Speaker’s office and is now in the private sector. Mr. Hoppe is a contributor to Hedgeye pursuant to U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ethics rules pertaining to post-employment.
