Last week, David Hoppe, former Chief of Staff to House Speaker Paul Ryan, provided some valuable insight on the heels of President Donald Trump’s speech to a Joint Session of Congress.
This one hour call covered a range of topics including tax reform, financial services regulatory reform, immigration reform and ACA repeal through reconciliation, the last of those things being critical to the success of all others. (For access to the entire institutional research call ping sales@hedgeye.com.)
In other words, like it not, for the next few months, people that care about tax reform, immigration reform and financial services reform – which is virtually everyone – care about ACA repeal.
Below are some highlights from the call...
Trump's Agenda: What To Expect In The Months Ahead
This year’s priorities are repeal of the Affordable Care Act and tax reform. Because budget reconciliation is the vehicle for making both happen they need to occur in a certain order – ACA repeal as part of fiscal year 2017 budget reconciliation and tax reform as part of fiscal year 2018 budget reconciliation.
With President Trump taking the lead on health care in his speech last Tuesday night, he has signaled that the repeal and replace plan of leadership is the Administration’s plan. That plan will use larger and more flexible Health Savings Accounts and refundable advance-able tax credits, protect people with pre-existing conditions, give states more flexibility to manage Medicaid programs, implement medical malpractice reform and allow insurers to sell plans across state lines.
The House may move on financial regulation reform in the next couple of months but Senate will probably not take it up until September - or even later. One of the key issues for financial regulation reform is the Durbin Amendment. Repeal of ACA is a top priority for Republicans, more so than immigration and tax reform, because they have been promising it to their constituents for seven years.
Once the ACA repeal is effectuated through fiscal year 2017 reconciliation, the House can take up tax reform as part of fiscal year 2018 reconciliation. The big question on tax reform is whether or not it will be revenue neutral. Key to making it revenue neutral is the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT). House Republican Leadership believes that the BAT is the right policy and they believe it is necessary for making tax reform revenue neutral.
The major opening in Trump’s speech was with immigration reform when he introduced the idea of a merit based system which may occur once the issue of border security is settled.
Complicating everything mentioned above is the Senate’s schedule. They are wrapping up confirmations and need to take up about 10 Congressional Review Act bills that roll back Obama Administration regulations. They also need to confirm President Trump’s SCOTUS nominee, Judge Neil Gorsuch.
Timing is critical. The House must pass a bill by the third week in March so Senate can take it up before the Easter/Passover recess which begins April 7th. If the House does not act by the third week in March, then Senate will not be able to take up ACA repeal/fiscal year 2017 reconciliation until May.
Editor's Note
For access to the entire institutional research call ping sales@hedgeye.com.
ABOUT David Hoppe:
David Hoppe has nearly 30 years of experience on Capitol Hill; Mr. Hoppe has held a number of prominent staff positions within the Republican leadership most recently as Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. He also served as the chief of staff for Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) from 2011 through 2013.
Prior to joining Senator Kyl’s staff, Mr. Hoppe was president of the bipartisan public affairs firm Quinn Gillespie and Associates. Earlier, Mr. Hoppe served as chief of staff to then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott from 1996 through 2002; and previously worked with Senator Lott as staff director of the House Republican Research Committee from 1979 through 1980 and staff director for the House Republican Whip from 1981 through 1984.
Mr. Hoppe has served as chief of staff to Representative Jack Kemp (R-NY) and administrative aide to US Senator Dan Coats (R-IN). He also has worked at the Heritage Foundation and Squire Patton Boggs, and Quinn Gillespie & Associates.
